That is my point. Only the last to buy will get burned. One thing to look at too though is the appraisals on these houses have been blown up in order to get people in them as well. I'm not saying things won't get ugly, but you are not going to see what you saw in the lates 80's.
I have another question ... why is it the commercial R.E. sector is still holding up in some of the big cities also ... who is left holding the bag after all the new highrises are built , if there is not sufficient demand ( enough occupants either commercial or residential ) ?
That's what you're blinding yourself to for some reason..and I don't understand why? Two years worth of loans at the peak of a bubble is a fucking lot. It's a lot of overpriced houses being sold with creative financing that literally 50-60% of people shouldn't have qualified for in the first place...when those ARMs re-adjust those people will be in bad loans in overpriced homes in crap areas that they can't afford. Wait....do you even know what an ARM is? It seems more and more like you probably don't.
You sound like a realtor. What are you going to say nextâ¦â¦God is not making any more land; therefore, the housing market will always be stable ? The correction will have residual effects all over.
Too bad the peak was 2 years ago. So the majority of these homeowners are in houses that were bought from mid 2005 and back and are sitting on equity even on a 20% decline. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TOL&t=5y http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DHI&t=5y http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PHM&t=5y Have you ever heard of refinance into a fixed 15 or 30 ? That was one of the reasons ARM were created so people could have time in order to lock in a better fixed rate but still close on the house.
You just made my point...haha. The prices have done nothing but settle or go down since THE PEAK! That means everyone who has purchased since the PEAK(Do you know the definition) has a home valued at less than they paid! That means that their equity is probably less than what they paid in the first place! Refinance? When, where? Refinance on a house you can't afford and that is worth less now than previously? Yes, I'm sure the lenders would be brilliant to do that since they were smart enough to issue millions of "liar loans" for the past few years. Do you get it now!??!? If you don't get it now I can't carry on...you're going to make me lose my mind and jump out the window.
....and stock charts have very little to do with the reality of a PEAK. They actually make my case more so...do you see how many homes they were building in the last 2 years? Approximately half of the loans to buy those houses were Alt-A loans given to people who shouldn't have been given loans in the first place. Add negative equity on many, piggybacks, declining value, etc. and you have a major crisis. Are you playing stupid?
One thing I haven't seen discussed is the impact of the new bankruptcy law on foreclosures. I'm not sure you can "walk away" any more....you still might be evicted for non-payment though.