Discussion in 'Trading' started by ChartingMarkets, Apr 16, 2004.

  1. Watch Lehman today...doing its retracement move. I am guessing that around 79-79.25 will stop this stock in its tracks for a reshort. I will watch it around this area for an entry.
  2. Here is how I am going to handle this one. The neckline of the H&S it broke 4 days ago is 80.75 area. So with the stregnth today in LEH I will be watching it to see how it reacts as it gets to the daily yet declining 8 day ma which is currently near 79.35 area. If it gets there at all I dont know. If it does get up to that I will be watching it for weakness on the intraday charts. As of right now the stochastics on the 60 and 30 mins are so overbought it looks like a basketball team down by 30 points starting the 4th quarter and within 10 points with 5 mins left to play. In other words it looks tired. The tricky part is finding an entry to reshort especially on a day like this when the indicies are trying to push up. So the best play here is watch and wait to see how it reacts towards the end of the day and try to make an entry into Mondays session and just let LEH blow off and do what it is doing today. I will keep my eye on it..reshorting H&S are tricky and you have to be willing to put your stop at the nekcline break.

    For instance if I went short at 79.25 I would have to be willing to let it go to 81 area before I covered for a loss. That means I have to buy an amount of shares that = the total loss I am willing to take if it hits 81. One thing you can do is do a half or pilot short in that area to minimize risk if its wrong. Right now I am going to watch it even when if it gets to 79.25 or higher today for any weakness in that area. So right now its on watch alert.

    To be more clear I dont need to short at 79.25 or the best price ..etc etc I just need to short when I know the stock has topped out and shows weakness. I would rather be right and get in at a lower cost as it turns over then reshort a moon shot.
  3. been so strong all day.. the shorts aren't giving at all. Sigh... Looking to break the figure within the half hour. Not as receptive to the futures as goldman/bsc.
  4. Yes its been strong all day agreed. Thats why its on my watch list. The only thing that concerns me is that it gapped up today and held the gap. With that in mind its much better to wait for a rollover on this one to short then short in the face of the gap up stregnth. Shorting can be a tricky bitch. I am watching it though. My best guess is this one will take some time maybe Monday or so to flash a reshort whereever that may be.
  5. Finally my short is coming. Average short at about 78.85. My risk managment got me out 3 times, I was just about to give up on this short but when it spread up to 78.92 (short rally in the futures), I saw an opportunity to take advantage of the spread and sold short to the buyers that was coming in. It ended up being the right call and been steady profit taking ever since. The stock is down 45 cents from the high. I see my exit at 50% of the rally which is about 45 cents, I will set the 78.50 as the pivot point, so I am taking my profit now. Maybe going long a small position.
  6. Shoot, i missed the 78.50 pivot point cause I was writing the message before this. I swear elite costs me money... Anyways got out at the .78.58. I will consider this a 8 cent loss since i should of gotten out at the 50 cent mark. Anywyas looking for the longs now.

    Okay going in a pair with bsc... bsc had a nice pop up and will go short. This is speculative so I will be going in with a small position. I will only add to the positions when leh gaps down and bsc gaps up. Bought LEH at 78.54.

    Long leh - 78.54
    Short bsc - 84.23
  7. Took my profit on pair trades of BSC and LEH.

    covered bsc at 84.36 (-13)

    Sold leh at 78.76 (+22)