LEH is a great franchise and Wall Street will not let it go the way of BSC

Discussion in 'Trading' started by LondonHedger, Sep 11, 2008.

  1. Sponger

    Sponger

    And there you go, several firms coming together because they were commanded to by the powers that be - like you couldn't see that coming.
     
    #51     Sep 13, 2008
  2. 200K LEH shares bought on Friday at an average price of $3.74. I don't normally trade single stocks but this is like buying a call on LEH.

    FYI I'm up $3.6 million YTD, so this is a small percentage of my equity.
     
    #52     Sep 13, 2008
  3. Ya got balls, Mister. But, so did Karl Wallenda.

    Karl walked a million tightropes. That last one was a bitch. I was there- never forget his last words.........

    AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH...................................

    I wish you luck.
     
    #53     Sep 13, 2008
  4. Daal

    Daal

    you are delusional if you this stock goes to $20+. the good case scenario is the wall street finances a fire sale of lehman's bad assets, leh then takes the writedowns and sells itself at bidding war between big banks. the bad scenario is everything falls apart and the fed is forced to backstop a $1 a share, which shareholders will then sue and try to vote down the deal. they might get it raised to $2. the downside seems protected but I dont think the upside is higher than $10. there is the risk the fuld also agrees to dillute the common , I dont think he will do that though.
    but now thinking about it shorting here doesn't make sense
     
    #54     Sep 13, 2008
  5. once again, fear n greed rule wall st and humans.
     
    #55     Sep 13, 2008
  6. Cutten

    Cutten

    Why do all people lacking confidence in their position say "this is a small percentage of my equity"?

    When I put on the "greatest trade ever", it will not be with a small percentage of my equity. When I really believe in a trade, like buying on Jan 22-23 this year, I am 200% long on full margin, not fucking around like a limp dick with 5%.

    Small positions are only for trades you think are high risk but worth a punt, or marginal trades you shouldn't have on in the first place. I don't see a problem with your position, but don't go round mouthing off like this is the trade of the century, when your position is Pee-Wee Herman sized.

    Catch my drift?

    P.S. only guys with small penises brag about their account size
     
    #56     Sep 13, 2008
  7. Definitely sub-par for the average ET'er - I wouldn't mention this.
     
    #57     Sep 13, 2008
  8. western

    western

    Yeah..OK...if you say so. Are you sure you didn't misplace a decimal point? :D

    For someone who claims to be a superstar trader, you have such a misguided view on the leh situation. Its like someone claims to be Tiger Woods...and then completely misses the ball when they go for a swing.

    Your original post boasted how leh would trade above $20 on monday, in which case you really should've bought the $15 Sep calls for $0.05. Then you said leh would close on friday at $7...great call there.

    Here's the REAL news going on.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/26681709/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

    Looks like it will be a LTCM type piecemeal bailout IF anything gets done at all. Seeing how the Fed is trying to force the banks into something they really don't want to do, I would expect the terms to be draconian, with nothing left over for the common shareholders.
     
    #58     Sep 13, 2008
  9. Lehman wil be sold at a premium blah blah blah
    What is a premium? Is that based on the book value as judged by the analysts who on no point during the 95% sell off have changed their rating from BUY or HOLD?
    How is it that a "great franchise" sells of 95% in one year?

    I had some friends in London crying into their beer after going long Northern Rock after it nosedived. Not the best comparison maybe, but we can conjecture about many things, the only real thing we have is the share price and on that basis LEH is a piece of shit.

    As for your aside at cnbc LondonHedger, as recently as last week Cramer was pumping LEH as a "screaming buy", when it was trading above $16. That guy may even be the biggest tool on cnbc, in spite of the tough competition.

    What time is the news out on Sunday?
     
    #59     Sep 13, 2008
  10. latest news from wsj isnt promising. But the story changes every hour, so no point getting all worked up. Just wait for the announcement on sunday. If there is no deal on sunday, leh will drop to <$1 and a massive panic on wallstreet will result as all the firms trying to cover their counterparty risk. It will be a lot worse than during bsc time period.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122134089502132567.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
     
    #60     Sep 13, 2008