Legendary Julian Robertson Says U.S. To Suffer Poor Economy for 10 to 15 Years

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ByLoSellHi, Oct 13, 2008.

  1. AK100

    AK100

    Box

    Yep, you're right, the arms and legs can be knocked up in your garage. It's the all important brain (AI) where the secret lies.

    US military are well into this game and a lot of things come from the military.

    But so are the Japanese, in fact I think they're ahead of the Americans. Their stockmarket possibly looks like a world beater over the next 20 years, built on the back of robot technology.

    Think about this hard everyone. Take China as an example. What do they do right now, what's been the secret of their success over the last 10 years or so?

    Yes, manufactoring. But I would estimate that 90%+ of what they produce ain't that complex, kitchen sinks, clothes, match sticks, baths etc etc.

    And what might happen if robots replace them. That's a lot of unemployment etc. Same with America, how many jobs in detroit could the robots do, how many cleaners in LA could they replace, how many plane pilots the world over could they replace?

    Some people are suggesting that every robot should come with a 10,000% tax otherwise we all get destroyed.

    Sounds alarmist? not if you think it about it.........
     
    #31     Oct 14, 2008
  2. den999

    den999

    I guess we all better stock up on canned food, plastic shower curtains, duct tape, and ammo.
     
    #32     Oct 14, 2008
  3. But he talked about inflation, not deflation as a reason for a steepener...
     
    #33     Oct 14, 2008
  4. 10-15 years recession.
    I don't see it and I am pretty bearish on the economy.
    3-4 years I can see that and it is going to be a deep one. In this consumer driven economy, the consumer is going to be doing a lot of belt tightening.
     
    #34     Oct 14, 2008
  5. Some interesting thoughts in this thread...
     
    #35     Oct 14, 2008
  6. A few decades back computers were going to put people out of work but the upside was that we would have lots of spare time. There was a college major in Leisure Time Activities, not kidding here, I knew a guy that had that major. What happened with the computers is not that they reduced work much, they improved the quality and they opened up new areas of work and research and improved productivity. Probably it will be similar with the robots.
     
    #36     Oct 14, 2008
  7. The only part of the the article I agree with are the stock picks.
     
    #37     Oct 14, 2008
  8. gnome

    gnome

    Hard to know which will prevail...

    Declining housing prices are deflationary as are all the CDS assets disappearing to money heaven.

    But all of this bailout and stimulus money is inflationary.

    What wins out?

    Could be we see the worst of both.. declining house prices but the cost of goods and services continues to inflate.. ??
     
    #38     Oct 14, 2008
  9. jem

    jem

    it should be noted he used to be "billionaire" investor. His crystal ball is not what it used to be if he has to be called millionaire investor.
     
    #39     Oct 14, 2008
  10. achilles28

    achilles28

    Jayford,

    Good to hear from you.

    I agree - supply-side or war is the only thing left to juice the economy.

    I spent a lot of time last night contemplating Japans deflation with 0% rates.

    My best guess was posted last night.

    Consumers bought in at or near bubble top.

    The hyper-inflated valuations were locked-in, the market crashed, and wages never rose commensurate with home prices or home equity debt they had taken.

    Which means the entire economy was saddled with years and years of Bubble debt that had to get paid off with pre-bubble wages!

    That equaled a massive drop in consumption, GDP and price deflation ensued.

    The same thing is happening now, in America.

    Home values didn't go as high as Japan. But the scope is just as wide. Plus, our savings is non-existent.

    Another interesting facet- why didn't more credit help?

    I think i got that one, too:

    At or near 0-3%, interest, Bubble Debt on mortgages or home equity cannot be re-financed any lower.

    If mortgages were locked in at say 7%, then interest rates dropped and people re-financed at 4%, the overall Bubble Debt Load would decrease from the reduction in interest payments over the lifetime of the mortgage. More consumption and a buoyed economy would result.

    But with mortgages bought at 3-4% already (can't refinance much lower), additional interest rate cuts can't generate any savings on re-financing, so the consumption (And debt) remain at Bubble Levels, as interest rate cuts have little-to-no impact on overall debt.

    In other words, if debt is taken out at high interest, the total debt burden can be reduced by reducing interest rates on that debt.

    But if debt is taken out at very low levels of interest, the total debt burden can only be minimally reduced - or not at all - with further reductions in interest.

    Thats a Big Problem.
     
    #40     Oct 14, 2008