Leffler Commodities, LLC Afternoon News ( Friday 07/20/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by kanellop, Jul 21, 2012.

  1. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again to All.

    Exist the following News:

    http://www.lefflercom.com/images/E0246901/CLOSINGBELL.pdf .

    ( I will probide here the Comments relative to Corn, Soybean Complex and Wheat that exist there. )

    CORN

    1) The corn market posted solid gains with the December contract showing the most strength. This was the unwinding of recent spread trades against the September corn contract.
    This spread lost half of what it gained yesterday.

    2) Weather… remains the theme for corn traders. The current condition and forecast has limited amount of rainfall and extreme heat returning to the area. No relief in sight as NOAA issued an update for the next 30 days. Below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for the major part of the Midwest.

    3) As of yesterday, the month of July is the second warmest and second driest in the since 1894. The record was made in 1936 during the Dust Bowl days.

    4) The corn plant is finishing up pollination for a large part of the Midwest. Kernel development is the next concern. Most of the damage has already occurred.

    5) The market is trying to find a value for the amount of corn that will be binned. Ending stocks for corn are likely to be lower than the previous year which was a low number compared to recent years.

    6) Traders are looking for a 3 to 6% drop in crop condition for corn in next Monday’s report. This would be close to the condition seen in 1988 at this time of the year.

    7) The trend continues to point higher on the corn charts. These charts have been in an overbought condition for some time. Technically and fundamentally, the corn price should work higher.

    SOYBEAN COMPLEX

    1) For the third straight session the soybean complex made new highs and closed strong to the upside

    2) Today there were several new all-time record highs scored in the soybean and soybean meal futures

    3) For the third straight session the August and September soybean meal futures traded and closed above the lofty $500 area. August soybean meal made an all-time high today of $552.00.

    4) The August soybeans with today’s $17.77 3/4 high made a new high for a spot soybean contract, while the November soybeans had an all-time record high today of $16.91.

    5) Today upside was the results of more concerns over the condition of the soybean crop with the continuation of the hot and dry weather in the Midwest

    6) Expect another report on Monday of lower condition ratings for the soybean crop.

    WHEAT

    1) The wheat market took a breather in today’s trading session, but late buying kept it positive and closing near the session highs. Wheat has posted impressive gains in the last month.

    2) In the last 34 days, the September Kansas City wheat contract rallied almost $3.00.

    3) Wheat is a follower of the corn market but has some friendly fundamentals of its own.

    4) Supply news out of the foreign countries adds a bullish factor. India’s monsoon season so far is a disappointment. The north China Plains has experienced less than desirable rain fall which affect their spring wheat crop.

    5) Russia tops the list of problem areas. This includes most of the Black Sea Region. Wheat prices in this area push higher gaining $20.00 per metric ton this week. Traders remember a couple of
    years ago, the surprise in the low wheat production in Russia.

    6) News out of Australia has been quiet which usually means everything is in good shape. Dryness in the Western Australia is attracting some attention. The trade is looking at a 25 million metric tons wheat crop for this country.

    7) Wheat charts, like all the grain charts, look impressive. Momentum is to the upside. Trend indicators are pegged at the top of the graph and have been for some time.

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  2. hey George, just curious, are you long or short corn?
     
  3. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello.

    I am around here and considering a lot the current Grains Situation that cares me a lot.

    I read News and get out of my Apartment for to Walk and to think.

    Try to calm my mind this Saturday a lot.

    Now, as are the things for me,

    i have a very small number ( Less than 5 ) Long Futures Contracts in September 2012 CBOT Corn.

    I traded the CBOT Corn this Year from early February-March ( If i remember quite well ).

    But had tremendous Losses.

    Everything looked in my eyes that Chinese will buy more Corn,

    because their Reserves was low,

    based in my Informations,

    but Chinese didn't buy.

    I was Long in July 2012 CBOT Corn.

    The USDA Quarterly Report of March 29 almost "kill" me.

    A little time before of it,

    got out with executed Stop Losses.

    After that,

    i make in a Night with my local time a Thought.

    I said to my self,

    let me look the Spread between my passionate Good,

    which is the Wheat,

    with Gold.

    In the past i watched that a lot.

    I was angry that this Spread raised against of Wheat.

    I wondering how that was possible.

    Finally, watched that Spread in the Ratio of: 2.67 ( If i remember well ).

    ( Meaning divided Gold Price with the Wheat Price. )

    I saw that the Highest Value that gone the recent period was: 2.82 - 2.84 ( If i remember well ).

    Then decided to make a quite risky move.

    Shorted one Regular COMEX Futures Contract of 100 Troy Ounces and gone Long to 5 Futures Contracts of CBOT Wheat for to average it that period for to have a same Percentage Raise or Drop.

    I put a Stop Loss in my Mind the biggest Spread Ratio.

    That period CBOT Wheat make a mythical short term raise with highest Value around 7.20 USD.

    Gone back.

    In 6.98 USD sold the 4 Long CBOT Wheat Futures Contracts and keep the one.

    In the meanwhile exit from Gold too.

    Now, started again to watched the Corn.

    I watched the Weather.

    Still, i had in my Mind that possibly it will exist Weather Troubles.

    Started to trade the Corn again,

    the July 2012 CBOT Futures Contracts from around the field of 5.50 USD.

    Small Trades.

    In the meanwhile rebuy all the sold CBOT Wheat Futures Contracts around 6.38 USD.

    Sold them all around 6.18 USD and focus to Corn.

    Now, this time i did not burn from the "Alan Greenspan" of USDA:

    Joseph Glauber.

    Released a WASDE Report friendly to my Long Corn CBOT positions.

    But the Market again make the opposite.

    Drop in CBOT Corn Prices.

    I add more positions.

    Small Trades occured again,

    but this time opened Long positions in the September 2012 Corn CBOT.

    Here, i noticed something.

    Chinese was nowhere,

    and i said to my self to go only to the September 2012 Corn CBOT.

    I put a Stop Loss Limit Order 5.1475 USD with 5.1450 USD to my Futures Contracts.

    I watched also the Calendar Corn CBOT Spread of July 2012 to September 2012.

    That Spread in one Day make a tremendous huge Rally.

    That Day my Stop Loss hit it and exit with Losses.

    Finally, i find a psychological courage to rebuy September 2012 Long Corn CBOT positions,

    in the 5.21 USD.

    I keep it all these Days.

    Until sold everything,

    around 7.10 USD because a damn Gap below of that Price fear me.

    But rebuy back the 3/4 of them in the Fields of 7.67 & 7.71 USD.

    And keep them until now.

    Also, i opened some Long tiny positions in November 2012 CBOT Soybeans ( Mini Futures Contracts ).

    Also, still have some Long Wheat Spreads between Kansas City and CBOT Wheat in the Year 2013.

    Here, i want to tell you some believes of me.

    We go inside in a very difficult time period.

    It will exist significant things.

    What i expected ?

    For Corn i expect,

    if continues the Drop in Good to Excellent Condition and the Price Rally,

    unawares the EPA to announce reduce in the Ethanol Mandate Blending.

    I believe that USDA will have as Major Goal to protect the U.S.A Animal Population.

    Must these Animals to feed prompt.

    With continues skyrocketing Corn Prices it is not possible that.

    So, will start to make moves.

    So, means that,

    it will exist huge Volatility in Corn Prices.

    For Soybeans i believe that will exist huge Crop Troubles.

    Already, i believe that the Yield is far below of 40 Bushels per Acre.

    Here, i expect to happen the following and possibly above of the 20.00 USD the Soybeans Price per Bushel.

    USDA will put an Export Tax.

    That will reduce the Demand that have the Chinese and will collect Money the U.S.A Government.

    Again, will exist huge Volatility in Soybeans Prices.

    That's for now...

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  4. yeah, no kidding, not only did the Chinese not buy more, I hear when the price got near $8 they sold what they had at a profit.

    When I was young, after 13 years of profitable trading I went completely broke betting that eventually it would rain.
     
  5. kanellop

    kanellop

    Indeed do that the Chinese.

    It is tremendous difficult the Grains Trading.

    One reason that try to trade them,

    is because,

    can not manipulate "Big Guys" the Weather.

    Many Markets are manipulated.

    As i have learn until now,

    Grains Business is very secretive.

    That, because is possibly the most important Business in the World.

    So, Informations relative to Grains are very Rare.

    Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, etc., can not drink or eat it.

    But Humans must eat every day and Animals must feed every day.

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  6. yeah, I was talking to my family out in Iowa today. They are just chopping up the corn and feeding it to the hogs.

    Gold vs Wheat is very interesting. I know it gets a lot of laughs, but I am also watching Gold vs Everything.

    You seem to like ag resource reporting

    check out reuters Africa edition. They report a lot on maize and China. Since that is where most of the corn China imports is grown.
     
  7. kanellop

    kanellop

    Seems that you are from the State of Iowa ( ? ),

    a very important Agricultural U.S.A State.

    Iowa, the recent time period "hurt" me in some way.

    I had a Futures Account in PFGBEST Brokerage Firm that collapsed.

    Still wait and see what will happen to that Case.

    By the way, i have in my mind and Conover, Iowa.

    Do you know it ?

    Back in 1865 happen something significant to it.

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  8. no, the biggest nearby "city" was Le Mars, back in the day, they use to have a lot of cattle, and up until recently you could get very good steaks there. Now it's all mostly beans, fencerow to fencerow, and they don't even have fences anymore because there are no cattle.
     
  9. kanellop

    kanellop

    Hello Again, oldtime.

    May i ask you this hour,

    if you have Opinion for this Stock:

    American Water Works Company, Inc.,

    with Stock Symbol: AWK,

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=awk&ql=1 ?

    I bought them a little time period ago,

    with Average Entry USD Cost around 34.5 USD each Stock,

    because of the lack of Rain in the Continental U.S.A.

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
     
  10. no, I have no opinion on stocks, and I never buy one until I pay an expert to do due diligence for me before hand.

    I don't think any individual should invest in stocks unless they are willing to spend 16 hours a day studying them. That's what I pay the experts to do.
     
    #10     Jul 22, 2012