Yes.... but a synonym for chance is probability and when you assign a number to it, such as 50/50, it sure sounds like your speaking about probabilities. After entry, you have a chance that price will go up. You have a chance that price will go down. But if you say you have a 50% chance of it going up and a 50% chance of it doing down, your speaking probabilities. peace axeman
Aaaaaaaaaaah the advantages of RETAIL trading Ok....gotta get back to sniping this punk at 400 yards on Omaha beach peace axeman
Exactly. There's an old saying in sports, "Champions create their own luck." Being a league bowler, I'll give an example from the game of bowling. In bowling, whether or not you strike when you hit the pocket always has at least a little bit to do with luck. Whenever round objects hit other round objects unexpected things can happen. You can throw a great shot and still not carry all 10 pins into the pit. On the other hand, it's possible to throw a bad shot that doesn't even hit the pocket and that shot could strike if you have lucky pin action. Although there is definitely luck involved in any one single shot, the top bowlers always tend to rise to the top over time (over the course of a league season or over the course of an 8-game tournament). On the professional bowler's tour, the same bowlers often make the televised finals over and over again week after week. So in a game where any individual shot is affected by luck, either of the good or bad variety, the bowlers with the most accuracy, consistency, and strongest mental games are the ones who end up winning tournaments and league championships most of the time. I think an analogy can be drawn to trading. Any individual trade is like any individual bowling shot. You can improve your odds by executing the trade/shot well, but there is always the luck factor. However, over time and lots of trades/shots, the top performers come out on top. In essence, they have "created their own luck."
Sorry I didn't get back to you. If you're interested in this sort of thing, you'd enjoy Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb. Highly recommended. --Db
Yes, that book is on my to read list. I found some of Trading in the Zone very interesting because they addressed that. Made me view price movements in a whole different light.
Prox, Great idea to define what conditions not to trade under. I find trading under any of those conditions makes it very difficult to stick to a well defined plan. I also find that if I have to leave before the mkt closes,somehow this is in the back of my mind and I am "under pressure" to make a trade and the results show. Two other times to be very careful for me are Monday mornings and getting excessive sleep and feeling groggy.