First modest goal: 3 months from now --- be among the minority of new traders who do not blow out their account in the first 3 months best to start simple
6 possible setups today --- all put on paper before 9:30AM I took 3 by choice All 3 were winners - 2 could have run 15+ points past my exit Other 3 setups I did not take by choice -- one was the large gap down at the end of the day Not even annoyed I did not get in on it Perfectly happy I was lookng for it and had the setup to take it if I chose Observation 2 of the small winners were the exact same trade and I could have made the exact same trade again to catch the big run down after 2pm
-$110 on 2 trades today Sticking to the rule: Get stopped out twice in a row - done for the day maybe a bit too conservative but its a starting point for refinement Very simple method --- maybe wont' pan out but still exploring it Go short or long at a pivot with a 15 point stop The # of times the action touches is pivot is a manageable # to analyize by hand every night- but it still takes an awful lot of time --- TOS does not appear to have a good enough scripting lanaguage to let me automate the testing So I opened a trade-station account to see the scripting language within the platform offfers any advantages
"Get stopped out twice in a row - done for the day" Just my 2 cents. Toss this rule. If I lived by this rule I would have been out of business years ago. It used to be common place for me to start each and every day in the hole only to come back in the PM and finish +. If you are going to take yourself out of the market after 2 losses then at least paper trade the rest of the day. Have you read this book? If you haven't you are at a great disadvantage, compared to those who have. You have to train your mind to think like a trader. No one is born with that ability but everyone can learn it. Good Luck!! http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Zone-...bs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1204150017&sr=1-1
that trading in the zone book is so over rated. good?, yes, but not worth paying for when all he needs to know from the book is this: " the best traders think differently from the rest" .. 2nd paragraph pg 7. "what defines consistant winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set --a unique set of attitudes that allowes them to remain disciplined, focused, and above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions. As a result, they are no longer susceptible to the common fears and trading errors that plague everyone else" bottom of pg 7 and top pg 8 If you really want it, buy a used copy on ebay or something for cheap. Im not saying its a bad book, but rather I kept waiting for the "AH HA!" moment where he explains what trading is really about, and when i got done reading it..I was like..I paid 50.00 for this?!...It was so obvious.
Thanks for the comments - I actually paid 38 bucks for it in Borders. It was an interesting read --- but the actual 'method' he describes in detail did not work for me on a daily basis It did help me understand something though...... That any particular setup may work for a while -- but then is very likely to stop working for maybe even a longer 'while' --- not to say it wont work for a 'while' again. But you cant be a one trick pony and expect to make money so anything in the Carter book --- needs to be viewed in that context in my opinion I don't really think it matters what particular setup you choose -- the important thing is to do enough research and backtesting to prove to yourself that the setup, if applied consistenly actually generates profit by yielding more $won than $lost. And then use it for as long as it generates some profit. But the profitable life of particular setups may vary
Yes - I should have qualified that. 2 real $ losses and paper trade the rest of the day I am logging paper trades here and real $trades in the 'trader P/L' thread I have read Carters Mastering the Trade -- -- see comments in the next post down thanks for the feedback
One other note on '2 stops and out' per day I have been using real $ to test Carters use of pivots in 'Mastering the Trade' -- and that is part of Carters rule set. My experiment was to adhere as closely to his rule set as possible - hence the '2 stops per day' rule for Pivots Seems to me that using pivots as Carter describes them is not reliable enough -- so I am looking at other things as well I have not actually performed this test yet - but I suspect I could arbitrarily move the pivot points up or down 5, 10 20, 30 (whatever) YM points - and see similar action around the arbitrary pivots --- so.....
additional observations -- data for the last 22 trading days using either a long or a short setup from the same signal: stop in all cases set for 30 YM points (150 bucks) Long Positions: # of trades Profit @ Exit Max Profit Winners 15 $3,257 $9,870 Losers 6 ($900) ($900) Draws 1 $0 $0 Total 22 $2,357 $8,970 Short Positions: # of Trades Profit @Exit Max Profit Winners 16 $2,426 $7,350 Losers 4 ($600) ($600) Draws 2 $0 $0 Total 22 $1,826 $6,750