from 3/07/08 WOW... this thread became a wasteland during the climax, didn't it. It was at this time the NYSE BPI was at... ... 14%. the reversal up to 20% created a THIRD consecutive higher bottom and also another divergence from price. Tell me the market can't scare the bejesus out of us! This is the time I had to argue with people I was consulting with to get ready to buy... most wanted to sell... ... I was scared shytless, myself. But I have learned that this emotion is one of the best contrary indicators I know. Especially when I can trust the BPI's.
From early April, 08 NYSE and SPX bullish percent indexes in bull alert status... at mid levels. Effectively short 2 beta (long SDS) is backwards.
From 4/24/08 Another inverse fund (short) into a bullishly configured market? Gave 4 or 5 bearish signals by the time this order was entered... didn't give a buy signal until July and that was a false signal (first in the strong trend).
From July '09 Yes - expressed properly for the Bullish Percent index, 69.3%+ stocks are bullish (controlled by demand/on PnF "buy signals"). Getting overbought, but still in X's and controlled by demand.
From 1/3/09 I used to watch brokers grab the breakout page of DWA's (then faxed) daily commentary, pick a name because it had a "triple top breakout", get on the phone with their clients and say "XYZ had a triple top breakout! I think we should add a hundred to your account!!". (They didn't even have the juevos to pitch 500 for an account!) They had no courage or conviction. They wouldn't know how a triple top was formed on a PnF chart to save themselves. Unfortunately, they were all too common - like about 95% of the others. Lemmings. Their triple top would breakdown and they'd complain the method is junk. What they wouldn't take the time to do was learn how the signal fits into the bullish percents and what that says about the market. Most of the time, they could care less. Buy at the top - sell at the bottom... any client could at least do that or more! The brokers wanted good performance, but they weren't interested in putting forth the effort to even TRY to understand the premise beneath the methodology. They had no: 1) trading plan 2) psychology/discipline to stick to a plan (if they had one), or no 3) money management skills. In typical form, they'd blow accounts up and rebuild their book. They had good intentions, but when it came down to it, they were either too lazy to learn or too dumb to comprehend the simplicity. They were arrogant, ignorant, egotistical and narrow-minded.
So what you are saying is that you still need to do your analysis of the overall market? I have just begun studying PnF so its all really new to me. I see you have done a lot of work by commenting on old post. Great work
From 1/7/10 I agree with this post. The link displays the flowchart for proper chart construction. http://www.gummy-stuff.org/PandF-charts.htm Post looks kind of neural, though... ... I noticed Motorman from Trade2Win's forum stepping in the mix... 14 hours - 260 pages. Excellent thread. I really left my mark... I'll check back in March. btw - BPI is on DEFENSE right now...
Hey that guy at gummy-stuff quoted something I posted here! I don't know whether to be pissed or flattered.
I want to warn those who make the analyzer assistant or a robot for P&F using the index strength (RS). Index of force always count on Close. RS = CLOSE price paper / CLOSE price index (eg DJ). If you'll apply the High and Low, you can turn out a paradox when a division is High <Low. ========= Sample: Paper High=3 low=2 DJ High=4 low=2 RS High=High paper/High DJ=3/4=0.75 RS Low=Low paper/Low DJ=2/2=1 RS High(0.75) < RS Low (1) ======== In order to avoid the paradox, we must apply the Close paper and Close DJ. P.s. Soft BEB used only Close for RS.