9/16/08... It's likely that news was late and the purchases were already completed... Hang on, folks.
page 202 (finally - only 50+ more to go...) Just to clarify - PnF is not a trend following methodology. (A 50 x 200dma crossover strategy IS...) If anything, the very nature of the bullish percent index concept tilts it toward the predictive side. It IS, at the least, adaptive. The BPI was an alert to supply entering the market in June, and price began to confirm it in bar/stick charts of broad market indexes in July by taking out two levels of support at ~1200 from earlier in the year. And the worst of the fundamental news wasn't even out yet. With sincerest apologies to Mr. Grail - whom I am grateful initiated this thread - I'll just make a subtle suggestion that volume studies were also hinting at some trouble. (I am sorry to learn of your property loss, sir.) The participation by the rest of you has been worth your while, as well. There is a tool here whose value you won't fully comprehend for some time. Stick with it. Having lifted my leg all over this thread, I'm going to see if I can't finish the next 50 or so pages, now. Unfortunately, I sense it takes a negative turn toward the end... ...
9/29/08 Flyinglead, you don't know how true your words are... You have not been trusting your primary flight instruments. Or learned them, for that matter. Try viewing the BPI in this format: (forget all the other indicators and MA's, etc.that appear on it - just look at the line values of the BP... in time segments. A/O 9/29 it was heading south like a migrating bird - DEFENSE.) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNYA&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=0 This chart represents true demand in the market. Because of it's predictive nature, it bottomed in October and made subsequent higher tops in November and again in March. Prices went lower still, but this created a bullish divergence that most missed later on. The BP's depict the underlying market. Prices do not always do so. To get your mind around the BP, you first must KNOW the individual PnF chart... for the BP can only be made up of the aggregate of individual charts. If you're still around in 50 more pages, you will have proven your determination. Hope to see you soon. MS
The default format provided by Stockcharts is traditional. (IMO what should be used, also, until you have a solid understanding).
from 12/10 or so... To all in general, The NYSE BP reversed up several weeks before this post... in X's from below 30%... Bull Alert status... I know it's hindsight, and it didn't last, but this was the time to step in front of demand/go long (actually, right after Thanksgiving). It was tough and the market had plans to shake the tree again to get the last of the sellers to sell. Also a time for a cup-check... ... This is a great exercise for all. Forensic trading... ...!
From early January, '09 Trendlines can only be changed when they are violated (penetrated, through) by a stock's price. Only then will you go to the other end - top or bottom - and draw a new line in the opposite direction (up or down) from a previous bottom or top. Click on any default chart in Stockcharts and it will depict them. WMT is a good example since it has been range-bound for so long it shows plenty of changes in bullish support and bearish resistance lines. It is also scaled correctly. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=wmt,PLTADANRBO[PA][D20100130][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G Adding bullish resistance and bearish support lines to create a trading channel is a bit more involved, but not much.
From 2/8/08 It's simpler than this. But your chart has to be correct first, as well. Start with default scaling. And - learn the construction of a PnF chart well... it takes 5 minutes. (That info is buried someplace back in this thread.)
From 2/8/08 Your posts are very clear, CWU, but there are only 3 un-needed blue BLSL's - the uppermost left one is actually a correct BLSL because there was a violation of the BRRL at 81. The final red BRRL off the top at 58 and down was un-needed since there was no penetration of the BLSL... just a meeting of it - which moves the BLSL over to the next most obvious place at 48-49...