Hello Steve, Of course I disagree, Many variables means not one person can not manipulate prices. Many variables = no randomness because not one person can manipulate the price. When you are trading size, this is the most important thing, you do not want to see random movements/spikes. If its suppose to go where its suppose to go, it will go there without any interference from one agenda. Relying on a specalist isn't a great way to trade as well.
What kind of size positions are you taking? Give me a recent example of a position and what size you took on it.
I agree with Steve. The nadaq is like a freaking casino on testosterone. If you think a specialist is bad, wait til you have 5-7 market makers tossing stock back to each other, flashing and pulling bids and asks, trading 1 lots back and forth to each other and just mind f$cking you by the level II action. You are truly nieve if you think manipulation does not occur in nasdaq as much if not more than in NYSE.
I do read the tape, & usually do more than 20k. I just don't think it is critical to totally figure out every move the specialist makes.
Once you have traded listed long enough, you can see if the specialist is buying or selling. This guy has access to order flow. Do you think he would be taking in lots of stock (or selling) around a certain level if he didnt think it was a good idea? Of course not. Now he will let it squeeze and show weakness to flush people out but, time and time again, you'll see him buying and buying stock and then rip it up a little later. Sure he gets f#cked every once in awhile, but trading is an imperfect game. I tend to go with high probability, and high probability is just that. Its not perfect, but it helps me earn a very nice living.
I agree, but it does help justify taking certain positions when you get confirmation from the specialists actions.
Absolutely! Tendencies CAN be taken advantage of. On the other hand, I see many listed scalpers trying to overanalyze the specialist's behavior, and it does more harm than good.
Yeah, overanalyzing things can be harmful. I just mean, for myself at least, that there are a few things I look for and when i see them, I take advantage. It gives me a glimpse into the future (at least as much as possible in this game).
I BELIEVE SWING TRADERS HAVE NO PROBLEM TRADING OTC OR LISTED PLAYING OFF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS THE SAME IN BOTH MARKETS BUT AS A LISTED SCALPER TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO SCALP NASDAQ IS IT THAT DIFFERENT AND WILL IT TAKE ME THE SAME LEARNING CURVE AS A PERSON WHOS NEVER TRADED ANY MARKET IS IT POSSIBLE TO BE successful IN ONE MARKER AND TERRIBLE IN ANOTHER ?