No, but the FX shags in the mkt can tell... There's a way to tell who's on the bid in the electronic systems.
well Martin, your opinion holds more sway with me than any other poster on this site, ever since you told me to hang on to my bonds and sell my stocks after S&P downgraded, so if you say they intervened, they intervened, I just need some more screen time in forex, then I'll argue with you about something, but I'm not knowledgeable enough yet to argue with anyone about forex.
yep, thanx for the new word. I just meant, it is very very very dangerous to trade in that kind of situations, if you do not know 100% whats going on and why its going on. Since you are not trading for a bank, i dont think you have the knowledge to predict the extreme volume moves when the Central Banks, push money in the markets or change the interest rates....... Just wanted to help..... PEACE
I agree, but it's hard to avoid, nice if you're right, bad if you're wrong. Now you know two new words, shoo in and whippersnapper, we'll get you talking American pretty soon. But yeah, If those banks can dump that much cash in that short amount of time they should be rich. They say it's a trillion dollar a day market, but not on Sunday night. When do you trade over there? We get a little bump at 8pm our time when tokyo opens but the big move starts at 2 am when Europe opens, and then more of the same at 3am with London and more of the more of the same at 8am in New York.
yep. thanx. i am not a specialist for central banks and how they operate, but as much i know, when they throw their billions into their currency, they do not want to make money with it, they are not a investment bank, they only want to support their currency, thats what their job is. I also think, they are the only one, who can act so quick such huge amount in the markets. Maybe they close their positions step by step, when the currency have found enough support. Dont know..... But everyone else who wants to trade huge amounts, must go in an out of the markets, slowly, step by step, otherwhise the markets would move extremly before they could make their deal. Acutally, FX volume comes in on average 1h before europe opens and increases until 1h afer it. Next increase is 1/2 hour before New York opens until 1/2 after. Asian pairs also can have volume increase around when Tokyo opens. Thats just average, there are always days, where there is always high volume.....
@oldtime I always say, Forex markets are made for european traders, because you can get up in the morning, when the markets awake and you can go to sleep together with the markets..... The most less action is there when i sleep.....
so when do you trade, your time? For me, if you know what you want, like you say, getting it on an hour before Europe is 1 am my time. Good if you are a night owl like me.
Usually, i start to work from 6-7 a.m. Central Europe Time to 8 p.m. ! But of course i watch the markets 24hours. And if i have a setup to watch, i trade it also in the night, i never know when the big traders decide to start the rally.... It depends on my open positions and how their status is and if i have somthing to watch, what i could trade.... So, i am a night owl too, sometimes, but i am happy if i have saved my position so far, that i can sleep at least 6hours in one part, without checking the screen beside my bed all 30mins, because i am afraid of my risk. You know i hate the risk part of trading. But thats how it is........
For the most part, CBI, especially when done by the Japanese, is used specifically to fight economic reality. The Japanese are hurting because of the persistnet strength of the Yen. They know that every shock to the world financial system leads to more Sterling, Euro, Dollar selling in relation to their currency. They also know that a lot of the long Yen positions are highly leveraged and susceptible to sharp counter trend moves. They figure if they can take the starch out of the shakey longs they can change market psycology to a degree and slow and stabilize the next wave down. Think how badly the Dollar would have fallen vis a vis the Yen after breaking all time lows Sunday followed by the MF global implosion, the EFSF reality hitting home, and Popedreau calling for a referendum on the Greek haircuts. The MOF knew what was/is (FMOC) coming and got in front of the next wave of Yen buying. It will cost them in the long run, but our eastern friends value slow tidal change over chaos, and our willing to spend money fighting the trend, to insure that all hell doesn't break loose. So yeah, your first reaction to just hang on and wait for the effect of Intervention to fade, is kind of correct. Correct, but not easy. If on the other hand your powder is dry, monday was a great day to be piling out of risk and fading the move. Once markets stabilized post intervention, Everything/Yen is pretty much down across the board, and probably going to test the preintervention lows and beyond. I view the intervention as a huge signal by the MOF and BOJ that they feel the next sifgnificant move across all asset classes is risk off, and they were simply trying to slow it down a bit. If they thought things on the orb were ok, why would they need to blow cash intervening? Sell commodities, equities, com currencies, buy bonds. See what happens. I think ECB and Fed are calling tune, and BOJ is simply trying to do a two step in front of it.