LEAP Put ratio backspreads on QQQ, tech & Internet stocks?

Discussion in 'Options' started by MDCigan, Nov 19, 2003.

  1. MDCigan


    This is another trade idea/possibility I have been looking at.

    Personally, I think the Naz, and many tech and Internet stocks are in the midst of another bubble. They are currently selling at valuation levels well above all historical medians and at levels higher then any previous value except for 99-00. You have to make some pretty lofty assumptions about earnings growth in the next 1-2 years for the numbers to even remotely make sense.

    Having said that, an overvalued stock can become even more overvalued, and I see no point in fighting the trend or trying to call the top, and at least for right now the technical picture on QQQ and tech and Internet guys still seems pretty positive (although it appears to have weakened in the past week or so).

    Lastly, IV levels on QQQ are relatively low compared to the previous values.

    So the intent here is to try and find a trade that would benefit dramatically from a crash in QQQ and tech stocks, have little upside risk, benefit from IV increasing (which I am assuming would happen if QQQ crashed), and not be dependent on calling the exact timing of such a move.

    I think a 2006 LEAP put ratio backspread would accomplish this objective. Any thoughts on the exact ratio, 1:2, 1:3, 2:3 and exactly what strikes to use. My thought would be to roll the entire backspread forward to 2007 if Naz is still going strong 12 to 18 months from now (which I highly doubt).