Lean Hogs

October contract continues higher unabated. However, it is beginning the look of a reversal pattern. That reversal pattern is not mature enough to trade yet. 64.70 is the recent reaction low and sales would not be made until that area is breached.

 

The technical peak reversal held, and your weekly fractal reversal right on cue as well, would you hold short at these levels, with the rollover approaching?

Looks a little bullish now, but i wouldnt be betting on a double top soon.

dec, lean hogs
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=


Edit-not in the next week, anyway

 

It continues to be a short until it violates 65.60 significantly.

 

b1s2,

I am not sure if you still have this position open, but it seems to me Dec contract is ready to pop up based on macd hist and rsi long grail ? Do you agree?

 

I never entered short because I felt that I had enough other trades going at the same time. Looks like I would have been right though wouldn't I? In the front month December contract, I do see what you are getting at, but I don't believe it to be strongly bullish. I prefer more space between histogram troughs etc. Market needs to "fester" a bit. So , in summary I believe that the Dec Hoggies are still a short and I would defer to the reaction high of 61.80 or if more passive and less leveraged, I would still use 65.60 as the reaction high. My preference right now would be the 65.60 as I view 61.80 as a weak reaction high and ripe for getting stopped out on a fake-o.

Note:I also prefer RSI grails to have a much sharper point to them rather than the rounded variety that you are suggesting here. I don't view this as a grail.

 

I'm in long Dec 06 @ 59.60 with a tight stop. This current bottom was a LL in a Bull Trend for me but I have the Holiday spirit for ham and sausage stuffing. I agree the potential for a fake out is there but my risk is minimal.

 

good luck prof. Going against b1s2 is crazy imv.

I have included a Dec Hogs pic for review. One, actually the only reason I have used Metastock since the beginning was because I could see the macd hist well delineated as in the pic. I couldn't find another program that could do that.

Probably "because" I use this accentuated hist I see divergences were others don't see them ? Who knows.

 

Your chart is more bearish looking than mine. I think short is best for now unless 65.60 is violated significantly.

 

I still have much to learn. 65.60 for me is like three trades away..

 

I may be wrong, but I always take a stand.