Does anyone know of something that can be used as a leading indicator for future's movement? I'm sure future's has to follow something, but I can't seem to find it. The best I have found so far is divergences between S&P and trin/tick but that isn't always a sure thing. TIA
Until yesterday, QQQ on ISLD has been claimed by some to lead the futures. But that is all ancient history now. Others say the DJIA cash leads S&P futures. I think if there is anything that sometimes leads stock index futures for big intraday moves, it's the TICK. Or we can just accept the fact that nothing leads the futures.
I think you're right about "nothing leading futures". If a buy program in equities hits, futures will reflect it faster because of the time it takes for stocks to get displayed on the tape. If a buy program is initiated in futures.... well, nothing could lead. Fading an extreme tick works OK sometimes, but if the move is powerful (even for a short time), the "usual" place you'd fade ends up WAY too early. With interest rates so low, the premium is also very low. Trading futures now is almost like trading the cash directly.