LCI(Lannett)

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by benben245, Dec 27, 2018.

  1. Lannett's net debt is only $450M so if they were to rebalance short-term assets theoretically LCI could retire almost half of the current debt. The short term asset load is costing 10 percent on every dollar.
    Total Current Assets=527 M
    Receviables=250M
    Inventories=150M
    Cash=99M
    Current Liabilities=200M
    Short term debt=67M (plus interest)
    Accts Payable=57M
    other=70M
    Clearly an imbalance here.
    Lannett's Gross Profit Margin going forward won't be 40%, it may reach 30%. Lannett's 42% Gross Profit Margin for 2018 benefited from Levothyroxine's 60% margin. Take that away and the rest of revenue had only a 32% margin. Presuming new products will have lower margins that will drive average margin even lower.

    Assuming 30 percent margins LCI had revenue of $685 million in 2018. Subtract from that the $253 million from JSP and you're left with $432 million. Let's be generous and say that LCI will find an additional $68 million in revenue, which brings it to an even $500 million in revenue. With a Gross Profit Margin of 30% we end up with $150 million in Gross Profit. The Total Operating Expenses for 2018 were $159 million, so that's $9 million short before any interest or principal has been paid on their debt.

    This company has 56 percent short interest and needs to refinance, particularly their short term debt. They recently received 50 million dollars up front to handle to Levothyroxine distribution through March 2019 which could be used as leverage in refinancing. However, this is minimal compared to what a massive short squeeze could accomplish, and it seems it is necessary to secure the future of this 75 year old company. Large funds such as BlackRock and Millinium have added in recent months; their original cost basis much higher. I suspect this stock is 'boxed' in by funds, first as a hedge against the potential loss of JSP's Levothyroxine. Covering has not occurred as funds prepare to initiate a mechanical short squeeze that will cause the stock to rocket upward allowing them to 'double dip'. I am long with lots at 40, yes 40, 15, 13, 12, 5.57, and 3.76. Good day gents