You don't need to explain to me how the real world works, I'm ver well aware that almost every single war & conflict has been over natural resources. But this is not the 15th century anymore, wars nowdays destroy natural resources, agricultural capacties ecologies. You have to have some thwarted malicious thinking to believe that the ability to use force is somehow a reinfocrcement of a nation's economy, especially in the age of nuclear weapons. It's like saying North Korea is an economic power because they are able to threaten the rest of the world into providing them with vital goods & energy. That's the "trade", after the investment into nuclear missles, the nation now reaps the revenues. Yet the country has little industrial & agricultural base, the population is starving & employment is near nonexistent outside of the armed forces.
who's talking abt economic power? read up on 'leverage' hydroboy... u saying NK wld have more leverage if they had rice instead of nukes? go on... am not quite done laughing yet
dollar decline will accelerate http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&refer=japan&sid=aCw0h6Q3Mxhg
The dollar has been holding up well, as there is a repatritation of dollars [that was] going on. Look at the rotation out of dollar denominated commodities into us tech and pharma. They are all hoping to catch a fourth quarter rally in US SIFs. Someone is going to be dissapointed. However, I agree with the article, and $ strength is very likely a temporary effect. nitro
may v.well last a few years... more short-term, next TB shld be pretty good, looking at how oil prices have come down... sounds like a $-positive to me...
My best guess at present is that EUR/USD ranges 1.18-1.32 for the rest of the '06 year and first half of '07. No real analysis beyond that except for a guess. There is room for some USD bullishness. A dollar collapse, though potential, doesn't look like it is in the cards right this minute. I doubt it will happen 'out of the blue'.
drsteph.....excellent commentary as usual... I have never seen a forecasted matrix of nondollar currency values that shows what the relative values of other currencies would be...given a steep US dollar decline scenario... The unemployment rates for the major EURO countries is already extraordinarily high for the 18 to 25 year old segment...and extreme dollar weakness from here spells disaster for other countries economies... So...just what currencies in particular are expected to climb steeply against the dollar and what are the forecasted numbers... I do not see a lasting steep U drop in the dollar versus other currencies... I can see more diversity in currency baskets and commodity baskets...but the commodity basket play is over....Most of the world lives on $200 to $700 monthly...and oil is reflecting this issue as we speak....Gold tags along etc... And it seems to me...fiat money is fiat money...no matter who has the controls...