It was a very interesting interview. Here's the links I posted in the other thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=74082&perpage=1&pagenumber=101
European birthrate is pretty low also. That should be factored into divining the future. Europeans are not replacing themselves. It is like 10/1000 people, US is around 14/1000. (Brazil 18.45 just for reference.) That will have an effect on their ability to shift income from working folks to retired. Another reason both US and EU have relaxed immigration enforcement. So basically the EU may appear strong now, but it is going extinct. :eek:
Exactly the kind of aloof and misguided criticism that only serves to highlight the limited perspective of the person from whom it came. Wasn't he responding to sdomeone else's post? I agreed with his points. america is a house of cards, not unlike all fiat currency scheme's that have risen and fallen in the past. Problem now is we have convinced the ENTIRE WORLD to march to the beat of the dollar and our capitalist system. When it all unravels, who knows what it will be like? The current conflict in the middle east could be the precursor... Regardless, the recession is coming. You all get a front row seat. If you're a true speculator, you'll start looking at those long-dated out-of-the-money puts TOMORROW. Already building my position...
So why are people still buying stocks, why hasn't the market cracked worldwide?? Bonds putting in a rally?? Gold is active kind of rangebound but stocks still seem to be concerned only with earnings and not with gov house keeping, debt etc or is the smart money trying to get out? Has this situation ever existed before? this debt situation?
Why are people still buying stocks? I don't know? They're buying stocks b/c that's what they think they should do. The average person thinks the stock market goes up over time and isn't worried bout timing their entry I suppose? Bonds are rallying... ok? The recession call is based purely on economics and fundamentals (gdp, inflation, unemployment) that point to a confluence of negative events that, combined, will slow down growth dramatically. These events are rising inflation, higher semi-permanent energy costs, and a deflating housing bubble. Add to that our massive deficit which limits the "tools" available to the Fed Reserve / Gov to combat inflation. However, you seem to be looking for evidence in the markets. I'm not going to try and make a case for it except by pointing to: a) MArket topped in May and since has been unable to sustain a rally for a whole day b) Fed must raise rates further to curb inflation. The market will buckle under these rate hikes. The fact that the market is anticipating no further hikes or one more at the most is a bad sign. Read my other posts if you want to know more details about the basis of the recession call.... US recession by Q406 - Q107
I'm more concerned than your run of the mill recession, in which many stocks go on sale and easily survive, but if the paper is dollar denominated then poof they must become worthless or is it that they are the currency and are safer than the dollar especially the multis where as the bonds of this gov make no sense at all, wouldn't they be junk bond status at best??? Shouldn't they tank?His recommendations 33% sales tax, universal health I understand but what's up with private ss? Wouldn't it cost too much? I'm not so sure we are just correcting in a bear with all this nonsense going on the market should be tanking but my have just bounced off wkly long support.
Europe has been dealing with various internal and external threats for more centuries than the US has been in existence. It's still here. It will change in order to survive, again, as it always has in the past. I have travelled extensively in the US, have worked for and with Americans for many years and I respect and admire their virtues. However, I can't help feeling that there is a large body of people in the US who understand in a vague way that Europeans have a different approach to life than Americans and unfortunately they assume that because of this Europeans are incompetent (because the US way is surely the only workable one) and lazy (because Europeans don't worship business in the same way as Americans). And yet European societies DO work, as does Japan, another country that does things differently to the US. In the major countries the standard of living is certainly comparable to the US, perhaps better if you can summon the courage look beyond GDP per capita and the number of televisions per household. (Consider social inclusion, health and health systems, gun crime, environmental protection.) We all know that the US has grown more than most/all European countries over the past 20 years. We also know that individual Americans are working longer hours than they did 20 or 30 years ago. The key question is, are individual Americans happier and more fulfilled than they were 20 or 30 years go? If they are not, why this emphasis on growth for growth's sake, or growth over quality of life? And how long can the US continue to finance this lifestyle through borrowing? As somebody else in this thread has already said, observing that a house of cards has not yet collapsed is not the same thing as making a credible argument for the structural stability of a house of cards. Suss
There has been heavy monetary expansion globally with the dollar being a key force. So once you contract the money supply, guess what happens? The middle east conflict plays right into it.