Israel outpaced the world in vaccinations. Now it’s seeing the results. There’s still a long way to go, but also a reason for hope. https://www.vox.com/22262509/israel-covid-19-vaccinations-serious-illness-decline Israel has outpaced the world in vaccinating its population against Covid-19. Now the results are starting to come in. And, so far, the news is good for both Israel and the world. Data suggests that the pandemic is starting to slow in Israel. Infections and the number of seriously ill people are declining, particularly among those over 60, one of the groups targeted in the early rollout of the vaccination campaign. The vaccine, out in the wild, is also mirroring the results of clinical trials, which found the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (the dose most Israelis have received so far) was about 95 percent effective in reducing infections. Maccabi Health Services, one of Israel’s four health maintenance organizations (HMOs), tracked 163,000 Israelis who had received both of the two required doses of the Pfizer vaccine; only 31 of those people tested positive for Covid-19, compared to an unvaccinated sample in which about 6,500 did. According to data from the Israeli Ministry of Health, 531 of 750,000 fully vaccinated people over 60 years old tested positive for Covid-19 — which is just 0.07 percent. Out of the people who tested positive, only 38 were hospitalized, with symptoms ranging from moderate to critical. Another Israeli HMO, Clalit, found that Covid-19 positivity decreased by 33 percent among 200,000 people 14 days after they’d received just the first Pfizer dose compared to the same number of unvaccinated people. This is all very promising, especially as the world banks on a vaccine as the best path out of this pandemic and as new variants of the virus emerge. “We say with caution, the magic has started,” Eran Segal, a scientist at the Weizmann Institute, posted on Twitter, accompanied by data showing a decline in hospitalizations and critical illness among the 60-and-over group in recent weeks. But scientists caution that there’s still a long way to go. Experts noted that serious cases are declining, but overall infections are not diminishing as swiftly. And many of these studies rely on preliminary data, so these findings may change over time, especially with these new coronavirus variants emerging. Israel also entered a strict lockdown in early January, just as the vaccination campaign was ramping up, which may have helped nudge cases downward. Who’s getting vaccinated, and how people might behave once they get those shots, may also influence the findings. Those who got vaccinated early and have gotten their full two doses might have been highly motivated; now comes the more challenging part of inoculating vaccine-hesitant or more marginalized communities. Israel has also faced criticism for its failure to extend its vaccination program to Palestinians, which could make herd immunity harder to achieve. Israel offers lessons in how to vaccinate a population quickly, but it’s also starting to show the challenges — and how difficult global immunization efforts are going to be. “Israel is the canary in the coal mine,” said Bruce Rosen, director of the Smokler Center for Health Policy Research at the Myers-JDC-Brookdale Institute (MJB) in Jerusalem. How Israel’s vaccination program offered a real-world vaccination test case Israel started its vaccination program in December. Since then, about a third of the country’s population (about 3 million people) has received at least one dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Nearly 1.8 million people have also gotten their second dose of the vaccine. That’s in a country of a little more than 9 million, according to recent figures from the Israel Ministry of Health. The rates are even higher for those in the over-60 group; for example, more than 90 percent of people between the ages of 70 and 79 have gotten the first vaccine dose, and nearly 80 percent the second. The vaccination program has since expanded so that anyone over the age of 16 is now eligible for a shot. Israel achieved this largely because of its existing health infrastructure, a universal, digitized system that gave the country a ready-made way to track and communicate with people. All Israeli citizensare enrolled in one of four health maintenance organizations (HMOs) for their care. Everyone has an ID number, which allows for easy access to electronic records. This system also allows health care workers to update a person’s vaccination status, monitor any side effects, and schedule an appointment for the next dose. Many Israelis said they got their appointment for the second dose shortly after getting injected with the first, usually scheduled for exactly 21 days later. This public health infrastructure meant massive vaccination sites popped up quickly, places that were accessible and big enough to be able to space people out and keep them as socially distanced as possible. Experts told me in January that Israel’s knack for responding in emergencies meant it was particularly suited for the logistical and speed challenges of a vaccination campaign. Israel also benefits from being a small country, and word of mouth did help in the vaccination rollout. Though Israel prioritized people over 60 and health care workers in the first phase of the campaign, it embraced a “no waste” policy, meaning vaccine providers prioritized using the doses above all else. If there were extra jabs at the end of the day or week, they might call in the pizza guy or the lady standing at the bus stop. “For a vaccination campaign, we are well-prepared, but we’re also flexible,” Hagai Levine, an epidemiologist at Hebrew University-Hadassah School of Public Health, told me in January. “When you plan, you don’t know, for example, how the cold chain will look, how many vaccines you will get — so you need to make rapid adjustments. And we are good at that.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (who, with elections approaching, has a lot to gain from a successful vaccination campaign) has said that Israel’s population could be fully vaccinated by the end of March. Experts said that’s still feasible, though it’s far from as simple as it sounds. Important questions remain around Israel’s vaccination program — and the world’s Israel’s data indicates that the vaccines are working at the individual level; the outcomes of those who have been inoculated compare favorably to those who haven’t. Israel’s streamlined health infrastructure makes it very easy to know who’s been vaccinated and how they’re responding, and compare it against those who haven’t. But that system is also helping it win the vaccine race in another way: In a world where vaccines are in short supply, Israel is getting a regular stream in part because the country promised to provide the vast collection of vaccine data to Pfizer, so it can monitor the effects of the vaccine. (Israel, however, also reportedly paid a premium for the vaccine doses.) But experts said it only gets more complicated from here, especially when it comes to achieving the goal of herd immunity — basically, when enough of the population is immune to the virus that it provides indirect protection to everyone else. New variants of the virus pose a challenge, especially if those mutations make the virus better at getting around the protections offered by the vaccine. Right now, the vaccines available have been shown to be broadly effective against these variants, but that could change. There are other questions scientists and public health experts want to answer. Brian Wahl, an epidemiologist with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said that while the vaccines are effective against the disease, they’re still learning about its impact on transmission. That is, how likely it is that a vaccinated person who doesn’t get ill from Covid-19 could still spread it. Another question is how long the protection from the vaccine will last. “We need to be continuing to look at how well the vaccine protects several months beyond administration, Wahl said. This is also a new vaccine, and not everyone is enthusiastic about getting it. Often the people first in line for their doses want to be there; it doesn’t take much to get them to their appointments. This is not always the case for vaccine-skeptical or vaccine-hesitant people, and getting those people vaccinated is a challenge Israel, and other countries, face. Israel’s Arab and Orthodox Jewish communities show greater degrees of reluctance to getting the vaccine, and the latter has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic. But Ann Blake, a postdoctoral fellow at Baylor College of Medicine who’s been studying Israel’s efforts, said she feels optimistic about Israel’s ability to overcome some of this hesitancy. “Israel’s vaccination campaign showcases a coordinated and organized communications campaign that uses local community leaders and credible messengers in tandem with a synchronized message from the highest levels of government with the specific aim of encouraging vaccination among the vaccine hesitant,” she wrote in an email, addingthat it could serveas a model for other countries, including here in the United States. Beyond hesitancy, experts pointed out that, right now, only people 16 or older are eligible for the Covid-19 vaccine, and scientists are unsure when kids will be approved for Covid-19 vaccinations. All of that leaves a chunk of the population that won’t get vaccinated and could still transmit the virus. “If you had 100 percent [of people] vaccinated, it would be one thing,” Rosen said. “But you don’t. So this is much more complicated in reality.” Israel has also faced criticism for excluding Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip from its vaccination campaign, despite making the shots available to Israeli settlers living in the West Bank. Israel says that based on the terms of the Oslo Accords, the 1990s agreements signed between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the Palestinian Authority is responsible for health care in the Palestinian territories. But human rights and health groups have pressured Israel to “ensure that quality vaccines be provided to Palestinians living under Israeli occupation,” arguing that restrictions imposed by the occupation limit the Palestinian Authority’s purchasing and distribution capabilities. The Palestinian Authority doesn’t have anywhere near the resources Israel does. The territories just received 10,000 doses of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine (which appears to be safe and effective); they are also supposed to get doses through the Covax facility, the WHO-linked international consortium, but distribution won’t begin until later this month. Israel did send about 2,000 Moderna doses to Palestinian authorities this week, with a promise of 3,000 more. But that is nowhere close to enough to serve the entire population of more than 4.5 million. If Palestinians lack safe and effective vaccines, that could also undermine Israel’s efforts at achieving herd immunity, especially since many Palestinian workers move back and forth into Israel every day. “We have to insist that Israel is responsible for Palestinian health as an occupier, especially during pandemics, and that infectious diseases do not know borders,” Rita Giacaman, a professor of public health at the Institute of Community and Public Health at Birzeit University in the West Bank, told me. Indeed, the uneven distribution of vaccines will ultimately prolong the coronavirus crisis everywhere. Israel’s example shows how a rapid campaign can work, but also the limitations of just one country succeeding against the pandemic.
Countdown to 'catastrophe:' Inside Europe's fight for COVID shots https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-europe-in-idUSKBN2A50I1 In a meeting last week in the Europa building in Brussels, home of the European Union’s political leadership, diplomats for the 27 member states were desperate. The EU had paid billions of euros toward shots to curb a pandemic that was killing thousands of Europeans every day. Now vaccine-makers had cut back deliveries, and the EU was trapped in a public fight. “This is a catastrophe,” French ambassador Philippe Leglise-Costa told the Jan. 27 meeting, according to a diplomatic note seen by Reuters. It was a crucial moment in nearly two weeks of confusion and anger over the EU’s vaccine supply, which were to plunge the bloc into its deepest crisis since Ursula von der Leyen took over the executive European Commission just over a year ago. A week earlier, the EU had set a target to vaccinate 70% of adults against COVID-19 by the end of summer, a potential ticket out of lockdowns that have cost countries billions. As the impact of the vaccine shortfall became clear, the bloc embarked on a campaign to shame drugmakers hit by production delays into releasing more supply. But the tactic wasn’t working and details of confidential deals were leaking out, casting doubt on the EU’s ability to enforce contracts it had agreed on behalf of its members. Reuters has obtained exclusive details of internal EU talks over the past month in diplomatic notes, and interviewed four people present at key meetings to verify them. The notes reveal how the EU’s top executives lurched from satisfaction about the vaccination programme to panic. Some EU officials were already aware in December of delays in vaccine production, the notes show, but the Commission announced ambitious targets nonetheless. The EU initially kept no track of companies’ vaccine doses leaving the bloc, only realising after its own supplies were delayed it could not trace the millions of doses that had already been exported. And as its attempts to win ground by legal means failed, the Commission faced sharp attacks from EU governments on its public communication strategy. In a pandemic that has killed over 700,000 people in Europe alone, the delays announced by the companies producing coronavirus vaccines - AstraZeneca PLC and Pfizer Inc. - risked leaving millions in Europe unprotected deep in the winter, just as new, more transmissible, variants were circulating and hospitals were being overwhelmed. Vaccination centres from Madrid to Paris had closed for lack of supply. The EU Commission declined comment for this story. So did AstraZeneca, which has said it is focused on boosting supplies to the bloc after the manufacturing glitches. The Commission has often said it expects an exponential increase in the availability of vaccines from April. Pfizer’s Chief Executive Albert Bourla told Reuters production is back on track in Europe after the company made changes at its Belgian manufacturing site to increase supply. The vaccine squeeze was not just a public health nightmare. It was also a political crisis. Britain, freshly divorced from the EU’s single market after five years of bitter negotiations, was inoculating people at a much faster pace than any EU country, public data show. Diplomats feared the Commission was losing the battle against a “narrative of ... big failure,” a senior EU diplomat who was present at the Jan. 27 meeting told Reuters. They urged the Commission to cool a row with British company AstraZeneca for the sake of getting drugs as soon as possible, the notes show and people present said. The Commission’s dilemma underscores the power of big drugmakers as governments scramble to vaccinate their citizens, and the geopolitical tensions that can result. Eventually, the notes show EU diplomats recognised the bloc may not benefit from arguing about contracts with AstraZeneca. Instead, the Commission turned up the heat on the United Kingdom - which AstraZeneca said was preventing British-made vaccines from reaching Europe - only to swiftly step back after realising it risked disrupting a border agreement in the Brexit accord which London and Dublin said could have serious consequences for security in Northern Ireland. The damage to the EU’s image was visible on the front pages of Britain’s eurosceptic popular press, with headlines declaring “EU vaccines war explodes” and “EU chiefs behaving like the mafia.” A spokesman for the French ambassador said he had urged the EU “to communicate in an orderly and strategic manner.” A British government spokesperson said, “We are in constant contact with the vaccine manufacturers and remain confident that the supply of vaccine to the UK will not be disrupted.” The UK government declined to comment on AstraZeneca’s claim it was preventing vaccines from reaching Europe, but said it does not prohibit any export of COVID-19 vaccines. “GLITCH-FREE” The month started calmly for member states, who had agreed at the start of the pandemic to form a steering group with the EU executive to negotiate with drugmakers, to support smaller states and prevent internal squabbling. EU Commission officials and diplomats involved met in the Europa Building’s S7 Room, a windowless chamber where delegates assembled at a round table beneath a ceiling decorated with dozens of squares in pastel colours. The Commission was represented by the EU’s top vaccine negotiator, Sandra Gallina, an Italian national who started working for the EU Commission more than three decades ago as an interpreter. She declined to comment for this story. The EU was about three weeks behind Britain in launching a vaccine - largely because it opted against issuing emergency regulatory approval as Britain had done. But the EU had announced deals with six vaccine-makers to secure nearly 2.3 billion doses for its population of 450 million. Pfizer, working with German partner BioNTech, was one of only two firms whose shots had approval. It was the only one supplying the EU, which had announced deals for up to 600 million Pfizer doses. The roll-out began immediately after Christmas. “Deliveries are so far mostly glitch-free,” Gallina told diplomats in a Jan. 8 briefing, according to a note from the meeting. Gallina told the briefing the EU was receiving 3.5 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine a week. She underscored that the UK, by contrast, had reserved only 4 million doses of the Pfizer shot until February. Pfizer declined to comment, saying delivery schedules are confidential. Gallina told diplomats some countries were passing on their share of Pfizer doses in anticipation of securing drugs from AstraZeneca, which was due to launch deliveries to the EU once its vaccine won regulatory approval there in late January. Both companies’ vaccines are made and exported from plants a short drive from Brussels. AstraZeneca also makes vaccines for the EU at factories in Germany and Britain, according to the EU Commission. Gallina told the meeting member states saw AstraZeneca as a “star” for its low prices and big numbers. The companies have declined to comment on prices; AstraZeneca’s vaccine costs about 2.5 euros ($3) per dose, against 15.5 euros for Pfizer’s, two EU negotiators directly involved in talks with vaccine makers told Reuters. AstraZeneca committed to deliver at least 80 million doses through March, or up to 120 million, an official involved in the talks told Reuters. EU negotiators were aware AstraZeneca was scaling back its planned supply because of production problems. The company had told the EU’s steering group on Dec. 4 that it would reduce its targets for the first quarter to two-thirds of the 120 million maximum, according to a diplomatic note. At a public hearing on Jan. 12 in the European Parliament, Gallina told EU lawmakers that she had heard only three instances of “relatively minor” complaints about deliveries. REALITY CHECK Three days later, on Jan. 15, Pfizer too said it had trimmed production and would temporarily cut supplies to the EU from its Belgian plant. There was an immediate public outcry across Europe. Italy’s special commissioner for COVID-19, Domenico Arcuri, said Italy was considering legal action against Pfizer. Despite these delays, the EU Commission went ahead and announced an ambitious vaccination goal. On Jan. 19, when just over 5 million vaccines had been administered in the EU, the Commission published targets to inoculate at least 80% of health workers and the elderly above the age of 80 by March, and 70% of the EU’s adult population by the end of the summer. It also proposed a way to donate excess doses to poorer countries. The next day in the S7 Room briefing, EU diplomats told Commission officials those goals were too bold. “We have only about 2% vaccinated. How did you come up with the 70% target?” a representative from Lithuania asked. “We prefer to under-promise and over-deliver,” the Dutch delegate said. A spokesman for the Dutch ambassador confirmed the Netherlands had raised concerns about the ambition in the Commission proposal. A spokeswoman for the Lithuanian ambassador declined to comment. Three days later, the notes showed Gallina telling diplomats that Pfizer’s sudden cut had “savaged” member states’ vaccination plans. But she reassured them shipments would resume the following week. “SHOCKED” Worse was to come. On Friday Jan. 22, AstraZeneca, due to start EU deliveries on Feb. 15, said it would cut supplies further over the first three months. A senior official involved in the talks told Reuters this would mean a roughly 60% fall - to 31 million doses instead of 80 million. The European Commission went on the offensive. A few hours after the announcement, Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides tweeted about her “deep dissatisfaction.” The following Monday the Commission summoned AstraZeneca’s executives to meetings to pressure the company to lift deliveries. The Commission won concessions - AstraZeneca sweetened its offer to add 8 million doses from an earlier date of Feb. 7. It was not enough. Aware of production problems at AstraZeneca’s Belgian site, the EU Commission asked for drugs from Germany and Britain. But AstraZeneca offered no clarity on whether doses could be diverted from Britain, an EU official who attended the meeting said. The next day, the company’s Chief Executive Pascal Soriot told European newspapers AstraZeneca was not legally required to deliver doses to the EU on a precise timeline, because its contract only stated it would make its “best efforts” to deliver. He also said Britain had signed up for its vaccine earlier than the EU and had asked to be served first from UK-based plants. The UK government declined to comment. Soriot’s remarks infuriated the EU Commission. On Jan. 27, according to the notes, Gallina told diplomats she was “shocked” by “the level of incorrect statements” that she said Soriot had made about AstraZeneca’s commitments. AstraZeneca declined to comment. The Commission, saying it was confident of the strength of its legal arguments, publicly demanded AstraZeneca publish the contract they had agreed. A heavily redacted version was eventually made public on Jan. 29. “BACK AGAINST THE WALL” At the Jan. 27 meeting, Gallina told delegates around the S7 Room table that some of the problems with AstraZeneca had already been known, but the new cut was “a big blow.” She also said the EU had no breakdown of who was exporting vaccines where. “We have some information but we need more,” she said. Rough customs data showed millions of COVID-19 vaccines had been exported in past weeks from the EU to Britain, Canada, Israel and China, she said. The EU Commission did not respond to a request for export data. Britain, Israel and Canada have said they received Pfizer’s vaccines from the EU; Britain has also said it received AstraZeneca’s vaccine from the EU. Fosun, the China-based company which has exclusive rights to sell Pfizer’s vaccine in China and Hong Kong, had no comment. Gallina added the EU would set up a new mechanism to track and licence exports. The EU’s lawyers could use several legal arguments to pressure AstraZeneca into releasing more doses, she added. The briefing did not go well. At least five diplomats told the meeting the Commission had pushed too far in its public fight and urged it to calm the dispute, at least privately. Legal action would not produce more vaccines quickly, they said. “The Commission has its back against the wall,” French ambassador Leglise-Costa told the meeting, according to the notes. He urged an immediate change in the communication strategy. Later that day, on another call with the Commission, Soriot told the EU not to expect doses from AstraZeneca’s factories in Britain because London was using a clause in its contract that gave it priority over doses made in the United Kingdom, two EU officials told Reuters. “ACT OF HOSTILITY” Seeing that diplomats wanted to tone down the fight with AstraZeneca, the Commission set its sights on Britain’s government. The next day, EU officials publicly threatened to block vaccine exports - a move likely to hit Britain’s imports of vaccines from Pfizer’s Belgian plant. And the Commission said it wanted to set up a mechanism that would require companies to seek authorisation before exporting vaccine doses. On Friday Jan. 30, it took a further step, threatening to trigger a clause that would block vaccines from reaching Northern Ireland - a British-run province that remained part of the EU internal market after the Brexit divorce. Imposing restrictions on that border was potentially explosive: The Brexit talks had agreed to keep it open, to preserve the central plank of a 1998 peace deal ending 30 years of armed conflict in the province. Northern Ireland’s First Minister Arlene Foster called the EU proposal “an incredible act of hostility,” and EU officials soon admitted it was excessive. By Sunday, the Commission had retreated on both fronts. Commission President Von der Leyen announced in a tweet the bloc had achieved a “step forward on vaccines.” AstraZeneca had offered to increase deliveries, she said. After a week of fighting and diplomatic confusion, the EU had secured just 1 million doses more than the firm’s initial sweetened offer, her tweet revealed.
Yep, and no good news should be turned down. And Israel got a good start with the vaccinations and I believe that that is all for the good and will continue to be for the good. Having said that though, I am not as convinced as they are - just yet anyway- that the vaccinations are the driving factor taking their case and death numbers down. Just cranking some quick data, I see that the United States new case 7 day rolling average is only 49% of the high in early January, whereas Israel's number is 63% of their early January high. So we done good too and most will agree that the vaccination level here has not been high enough to make that much of a difference. It's coming, but does not explain the last six weeks. If one wants to argue, masks etc, well that could be. My point is that we should not go overboard in attributing Israel's success to vaccine just yet at least for the general population. When they drop down to specific categories such as nursing home and like that maybe so. I know that it drives the binary types and dark winter types nuts when I say this but there could be more than one positive factor going on at the same time. A couple months will make a lot of difference with this vaccine situation. If the virus wiil just keep down curving and behaving it self, well, wouldn't that be nice.
So, Trump had no plan whatsoever and the US is 4th wrt vaccines per thousand and the US is in 1st wrt total doses. With no fucking plan. It completely and totally defies logic. #1 with no fucking plan. How is the US #1 without a plan? I guess it is fucking magic or something. Trump without a plan = #1 in the world
In the competition for the most deaths, the US under Trump, was by far number 1 too. Also without a plan. No president did ever better.
The only way that one can believe that statement is to believe that there is no reason for the CDCs, NIHs, and WHOs existence because they really serve no purpose whatsoever. You are inferring in the statement that they don't exist. Furthermore, you would have to believe that the CDC and NIH don't have any ongoing plans for pandemics. That these extremely large government agencies that are specifically tasked with disease prevention and pandemic planning don't actually do prevention and planning. Also, you would have to believe that prevention and planning for pandemics are 100% up to every new president. That the plans for pandemics that these government entities have been developing for years are just thrown away at the inauguration of every new president and all hard drives and files are erased. That every new president is tasked with devising a brand new plan/strategy that never existed previously to address any disease that may pop up during his/her presidency. That the CDC and NIH have learned absolutely nothing from throughout their existence.
More than 97% of recent COVID deaths in Israel were people who weren't vaccinated https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-idUSKBN2A91KU
Oxford Covid vaccine has 10% efficacy against South African variant, study suggests Small-scale trial of vaccine shows it offers very little protection against mild to moderate infection https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...cine-10-effective-south-african-variant-study
Here is what an entire country whose leaders are COVID deniers looks like. Sort of like the African version of Florida. The country that rejected coronavirus vaccines https://www.axios.com/tanzania-coro...uli-9d59c133-8d18-4ab1-8590-3eaebe313c53.html A number of countries around the world have fudged official coronavirus statistics, shared artificially sunny outlooks about the pandemic, or cracked down on reports that counter the official narrative. Zoom in: But no country has taken coronavirus denial to the extent of Tanzania — which is not only denying that it has a single case, but it's also rejecting vaccines. Even North Korea, which has reported zero cases, is set to receive vaccines from the COVAX initiative. So too Turkmenistan, which is officially COVID-free but will soon launch its vaccination campaign with Russia's Sputnik V. President John Magufuli says Tanzania doesn't need vaccines, and that they don't work anyway: "If the white man was able to come up with vaccinations, he should have found a vaccination for AIDS, cancer and TB by now." His government has instead recommended herbal remedies, steam treatments, and a ginger and onion smoothie to ward off infection. Reality check: Magufuli's COVID populism is dangerous for multiple reasons. Tanzanians are dying. In crowded hospitals, patients on oxygen succumb to what will be officially recorded as “acute pneumonia," The Continent reports. The virus crosses borders. The government's decision to refuse vaccines and make any test and trace system all but impossible could be dangerous for Tanzania's neighbors, and potentially the world. The other side: Doctors and journalists have tried to spread the word about the risks, mostly anonymously due to fear of retribution, and the Catholic church recently raised the alarm.