Two facts have been abundantly clear: The immunity period for someone who recovers from a COVID-19 infection is a mere 2 to 4 months in studies. After this the antibodies weaken and go away. This is not surprising since it is the same in humans for most coronavirus variants such as the common cold. Fauci promotes a hopeful 6 to 12 months - but there is no evidence yet of natural immunity for COVID-19 lasting this long. 40% of those who recover from COVID-19 do not develop immunity at all. There antibodies never reach a level to be detectable or effective in repelling a second infection. Due to this a vaccine for COVID is likely to only be effective for a period of 1 to 3 years. At least with a vaccine there is a strong probability (due to the formulation) that over 95% of the people vaccinated will have antibodies. The issue is that even with formulated antibodies the response will weaken over time leaving the individual vulnerable again to COVID-19 after a mere 1 to 3 years. Fauci warns that COVID-19 vaccine protection may be ‘finite’ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/f...9-vaccine-protection-may-be-finite-2020-07-07 What the world desperately wants and needs is a COVID-19 vaccine, but it may not be the home run that everyone is hoping for. That is according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who was asked how long a person would be shielded from the virus via a vaccine. “We do not know the answer to that,” Fauci said on a live-streamed videoconference hosted by the Dr. Francis Collins, director of National Institutes of Health. “You can assume, that you’re going to get protection at least to take us at least through this cycle.” “When you look at natural infection it’s anywhere from six months to a year. However, with this spike protein that’s being presented in the way that we do it, with primes and in some cases boosts, we’re going to assume that there’s a degree of protection, but we have to assume that it’s going to be finite,” said Fauci. “It’s not going to be like a measles vaccine. So there’s going to be follow-up in those cases to see if we might need a boost. We might need a boost to continue the protection, but right now we do not know how long it lasts,” he said. Vaccinations for measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, human papillomavirus and even influenza all require boosters to remain effective. Several drugmakers are currently developing COVID-19 vaccine candidates including AstraZeneca AZN, 0.17% and the University of Oxford, Inovio Pharmaceuticals INO, 10.74% and Moderna MRNA, 0.52%. The pandemic has claimed 538,190 lives and infected 11,626,759, with the U.S. in the grips of fresh outbreaks that have set records in several states over recent days. An eventual return to economic normalcy largely hinges on vaccines that can prevent infections from the coronavirus. “There is no guarantee...that we will have a safe and effective vaccine, but we are cautiously optimistic,” Fauci testified during a Senate hearing last month.
Moderna Stock Jumps as Analyst Expects the FDA to Approve Its Covid-19 Vaccine https://finance.yahoo.com/m/85ffe152-b223-35c2-9d47-798930462d7d/moderna-stock-jumps-as.html Shares of (MRNA) are up 239% so far this year, and the biotech company, which has no approved drugs, has a market capitalization of more than $24 billion. The biggest story for Moderna (ticker: MRNA) is the company's Covid-19 vaccine, which turned what was once a controversial if promising biotech into a household name. Yee believes that the Food and Drug Administration could issue the vaccine an emergency use authorization by early next year. (More at above url)
WHO: We won't immediately have a 'perfect vaccine,' and it is 'not realistic' to expect the virus will soon be eliminated https://www.businessinsider.com/who-perfect-coronavirus-vaccine-not-likely-immediately-2020-7 The World Health Organization warned Monday that any coronavirus vaccine will likely not be "perfect," in part because not "everyone will have access" to it right away. The WHO stressed that other time-tested public health measures: handwashing, social distancing, quarantining, and wearing masks in public, can all help tamp down the spread of the virus in the meantime. "Turn and face the problem and accept that it's going to take time," the WHO's Mike Ryan said. "It's going to require a huge commitment on the part of government and individuals in a number of countries to turn this around." A coronavirus vaccine is still many months away, but leading infectious disease experts are already warning that any eventual inoculation won't be a one-and-done fix for this pandemic, and that we'll instead have to learn to live with the looming threat of more coronavirus infections for months, if not years to come. "Expecting that we will eradicate or eliminate this virus in the coming months is not realistic," the World Health Organization's Mike Ryan, executive director of health emergencies, said during a press briefing streamed from Geneva on Monday. "And also, believing that magically we will get a perfect vaccine that everyone will have access to, is also not realistic." Ryan's notes of caution about eradicating the novel coronavirus, and the disease it causes — COVID-19 — come as the respiratory virus continues rapidly circling the globe, while infecting tens of thousands of new people across the US every day. On Sunday, Florida reported more than 15,000 new COVID-19 cases in a single day, a new record for any US state. Studies of some of the millions of people around the world who've already had the coronavirus, and have recovered, are also starting to suggest that getting the disease once is not any kind of iron-clad protection. Relying on herd immunity to protect people from the virus, either through widespread vaccination, or previous infections, may not be very good strategies for this pandemic. Likely, we'll need to keep adhering to more basic public health and hygiene measures for many, many months into the future. "We can and will develop a vaccine," Ryan said. "The question mark is: 'how effective will that vaccine be?' And, more importantly and more worryingly: 'who will get that vaccine?' And: 'will that distribution be fair and equitable?'" Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US' leading infectious disease expert, told Stanford Medicine's Dean Lloyd Minor in a virtual chat Monday that he'd "like to make a reasonable assumption that sometime at the beginning of 2021, we have a couple of vaccines that are safe and effective." But Fauci, like Ryan, is worried about an equitable distribution of any eventual coronavirus shots. "Obviously, you ultimately want to vaccinate everybody, but as doses come online, you're going to have to prioritize," he said. The coronavirus is still spreading rapidly across several US states, as well as in other big countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, and now South Africa. Ryan said there may still be a role for some "limited or geographically-focused lockdowns" in such places "where transmission is, frankly, out of control," without mentioning any specific locations by name. There are some straightforward, low-tech disease-fighting strategies that can work to keep the spread of the virus very low, as many European and Asian countries have now shown. Handwashing, social distancing, mask wearing, and isolation of confirmed coronavirus cases can all play a role. (More at above url)
This is true of a vaccine as well. Almost all of the vaccines under consideration, and there are many, are expected to require two shots as with many other type of vaccines. Not sure sometimes whether the press or others are always doing the correct calculations/speculations as to how much vaccine is available- regardless of the vaccine- if they are thinking that a person will need just one shot.
I expect that any of the initial COVID vaccines that are provided will only provide protection for 1 to 3 years. This is certainly better than the few mere weeks of immunity conveyed via natural infection. I expect an immediate second shot may not be required (depending on which drug company's vaccine is used). I will note that some trials are using one shot and others are using two. People will need to get a booster after 1 to 3 years (I expect). Hopefully vaccine development will be more mature when the booster is available and the booster will last for a much longer period of time.
A lot of course depends on how widespread the virus is even after various vaccines have been implemented. If it continues to circulate and is more or less with us as just another coronavirus that is "out there" as is true, say, of the flu and the corona common cold virus, then people who have had one shot will undoubtedly continue to be exposed to the virus at some point over a period of a year or two or three and that too is a booster. Probably, I did not word that succinctly. I am saying that people who have received a vaccine will also be subject to ongoing exposure to the virus too, which continues to upgrade the "software" in their T-cell memory cells, that hold the formula for creating specifi antibodies.
futures up on you guessed it.... More vaccine news. Moderna shares jump as much as 16% after company says its coronavirus vaccine trial produced ‘robust’ immune response PUBLISHED TUE, JUL 14 20205:00 PM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/mod...d-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel thinks a COVID-19 vaccine is closer than markets think, and could be here by the end of the fall https://markets.businessinsider.com...id-19-vaccine-close-arrival-2020-7-1029396061 Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC the arrival of a coronavirus vaccine is closer than markets think. "We may find ourselves with a workable vaccine for high risk individuals by the end of the fall, early winter," he said on the news platform's "Trading Nation." "We've had almost no setbacks in the schedule developing the vaccine, and I think that's where upside surprises can occur," he added. His comments came as Moderna reported progress towards a workable vaccine this week. A coronavirus vaccine is closer than markets think, Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Tuesday. "We've had almost no setbacks in the schedule developing the vaccine, and I think that's where upside surprises can occur," Siegel said on CNBC's Trading Nation. "We may find ourselves with a workable vaccine for high risk individuals by the end of the fall, early winter." His comments came as Moderna reported progress towards a workable vaccine this week. Moderna's experimental coronavirus vaccine was found to be generally safe and generated immune-system responses with the capacity to protect people from the virus, according to data released from the first study of how the shot works in people. "We think there is a good probability Moderna's vaccine will work and get at least emergency use authorization in 2021," Jefferies equity analyst Michael Yee said in a note. "We think a viable vaccine can generate billions in sales, which we see as reasonable given there would be high demand over the first 1-2 years." Siegel, who regularly comments on the economy, called the market "pretty resilient" amid the pandemic and consequent stringent closing measures. (More at above url)