Quite willing to say NM for O, but WI? With that whole union thing just wrapped up with the recall failure? I mean, I haven't looked at the data but WI seems much more in play than NM. Or probably even PA.
Yes, of those three, WI is the most in play for Romney. IMO, it and OH is where all his money and effort should go. It was one of the only states in the nation, and certainly the only swing state, with LOWER turnout in 2008 than previous years. All the stats say that when GOP voters are fired up, they win in WI.
lets analyse this.. what was the 2010 turnout like. how about 2008. do you expect this election to have more dems turnout? If so now lets look at the polls and see how they matchup with the template. for instance... I am more interested in Ohio... The NBC marist poll has a 6 point lead for Obama with a a sample of 40 D / 29 R / 29 I or 49 D / 43 R / 9 I depending on how you place leaners. I still have found the number but I found this... http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journa...inning-Swing-State-Independents-Media-Ignores In 2008, Barack Obama carried Independents in Ohio by 8 points and in Florida by 7 points. That victory among Independents contributed a great deal to his 2.8-point win in Florida and his 4.5 point win in Ohio. A victory by Romney among Independents could tilt both key states in his favor. Curiously, Independents seem to be mostly ignored this election cycle, and their presidential vote preference is almost unanimously ignored by the MSM. Instead, âwomenâ have replaced Independents as the key demographic. This emphasis and sudden fascination conveniently ties in nicely with the Democratsâ fictitious âWar on Womenâ meme. In both Ohio and Florida, Barack Obamaâs âclear leadsâ all come from heavy over-sampling of Democrats, not from winning the crucial Indie vote. In fact, most of the polls that show Obama with big leads also show Romney handily winning Independent voters. Yet, somehow, Obama manages to increase his performance from 2008 despite Independents now opposing him. Let's take a look at how Romney is competing among Independents in recent polls: Ohio â Leads Among Independents Ohio Newspaper Organization â Romney +28 CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac â Romney +1 American Research Group â Romney +16 Fox News â Romney +4 We Ask America â Romney +3 Public Policy Polling â Romney +2
In short Obama had to carry Independents by 8 to win Ohio by 4.5. Now he is losing independents. therefore holding other things equal an accurate pool would have Romney in the lead. --- We also know democrats have lost many more voters than republicans.
The problem is that you are using two statistical outliers as a baseline. In stats you must first establish a real baseline and then consider the recent data. Pennsylvania 2000 - Gore beats Bush by 4 points 2004 - Kerry beats Bush by 2.5 points 2008 - Obama beats McCain by 10 points 2006 midterm - Casey beats Santorum by 17 points. 2010 midterm - Toomey wins by 2 points, Total voter turnout in 2010 is almost exactly the same as in 2006.
Yes, but OH is a must win for R, not for O. PA and MI are must wins for O. If he loses either of those states, it is in the bag for R.
BTW, the reason everyone cares about women and not indies this time around is because if O loses his edge with women, the indies don't matter. Women voted for Obama by a 13 point margin in 2008 and they make up the largest voter block. Specifically, Obama had a huge 40 point edge with unmarried women, but the problem with that is the same as with most of Obama's core groups. Unmarried women, college students, and minorities are the hardest to get to the polls. They really have to be fired up to show up in large numbers.
I don't think Obama is going to have a "big win". At best the debate will be near a tie. New Mexico may be a special case, I haven't looked, but such a situation doesn't exist in PA, OH, MI, WI, VA, etc. The momentum is with Romney and the best Obama can do tonight is to slow it down. I don't think it is possible for him to reverse it. And, there is more underlying the Romney surge than the last Pres. debate. It may be the Binghazi scandal or something else or a combination of things but Obama is in big trouble and his options to stop the hemoraging are limited.
Sort of goes without saying. If those three states swing all one way or the other that probably means the other swing states will swing that way to a degree, too.
I was suggesting the previous elections serve as templates... every time. If they are outliers fine... people will understand. If you wish to present the argument they are outliers fine. If you explain your weighting... people might even prefer your polls. so what do you suggest is the proper template of D R and I for PA OH