I know you are slow but in case it helps - the chart shows the general trajectory of ACTUAL poll numbers which was the point I was trying to make.
Most pollsters (i know Gallup most intimately) use a 12% sample of African-Americans and 13% Hispanic. Blacks have been grading Obama at around 97% approval with Hispanics at around 70%, although that number too, has been falling. Hence, based on race, it's virtually impossible for Obama to fall as low as Bush approval #'s because a quarter of the polling sample is in the tank for him. Likewise homosexuals (4%) and Jews (4%) each lean at 75% for Obama. If one were to strip out racial, religious and gender minorities, Obama's numbers would be mired in the low 30's.
Indeed. That's why they chose the word "predicted". And since he's at an "actual" 41% now, your "predicted" chart is already wrong.
Gallup.com polls are the standard for Presidential polls. Gallup tracks daily the percentage of Americans who approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president Overall, Obama Job Rating at 46% Obama's overall job approval rating in July is 46%, unchanged from June