Latest memo from Howard Marks: Latest Thinking

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by dealmaker, Jan 23, 2018.

  1. dealmaker


    Travel to clients abroad and preoccupation with my coming book on cycles (final draft submitted just the other day) have combined to keep me from writing a memo since September, but fortunately not from thinking. Thus I have ideas to set down on two significant subjects: the market environment and the new tax law. Further, I’m highly motivated to do so, since if I skip a few months, people start writing in, “Are you sick?”

    More on the Markets
    As I wrote in September (“Yet Again?”), some readers of my July memo, “There They Go Again . . . Again,” perceived my stance as ultra-bearish. This was epitomized by the TV commentator who reported, “Howard Marks says it’s time to get out.” As I said in September, there are two things I would never say (since they require far more certainty than I consider attainable): “get out” and “it’s time.” It’s rare for the market pendulum to reach such an extreme that views can properly be black-or-white. Most markets are far too uncertain and nuanced to permit such unequivocal, sweeping statements.

    In September I observed that the cautionary July memo hadn’t said much with respect to what people actually should do about the markets, and I tried to remedy that. Now I want to provide a more complete discussion regarding today’s markets, covering the pros as well as the cons.
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