Latest Gallup Poll, Romney leads Obama by 2, Perry is tied with Obama.

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Max E., Aug 23, 2011.

  1. Max E.

    Max E.

    Latest Gallup Poll, shows Romney leading Obama by 2, Perry is tied with Obama, Bachmann just 4 points behind, and Ron Paul is just 2 points behind.

    Rick Perry hasnt even really done much campaigning yet, and he just announced that he was in the race 2 weeks ago. Obama had a 10 point lead in the last poll over Perry.

    This doesnt bode well for poor old Obama.

    Wonder why Range Rover forgot to post this poll, it must have slipped his mind.

  2. Max E.

    Max E.

    These prospective election ballots -- measured Aug. 17-18, well over a year before the Nov. 6, 2012, election -- indicate that the race for president at this point is generally competitive, with voters fairly evenly divided in their preference for giving Obama a second term or electing a Republican candidate. Even though the four Republican candidates tested have varying degrees of name recognition, they all fare roughly the same.

    Gallup's generic presidential ballot -- measured six times this year -- shows a close race between Obama and a generic "Republican presidential candidate," although there have been survey-to-survey variations on this measure, with the Republican candidate leading in June and July.

    President Obama's job approval rating is hovering around the 40% mark. This is below the rating that any of the six incumbent presidents re-elected since Eisenhower has had at the time of the presidential election. However, in August of the year before they were re-elected, Ronald Reagan (43%) and Bill Clinton (46%) were both below 50%. Obama's position of rough parity against leading GOP candidates shows that more Americans at the moment say they would vote for Obama than approve of the job he is doing -- perhaps a reflection of the continuing lack of a strong front-runner on the Republican side.

    With the first official votes for the Republican nomination more than five months away, and with the very real possibility that GOP candidates such as Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani, and George Pataki may jump into the race, much could still change as the election process unfolds. A look at presidential election trial heats conducted in the late summer of the year before previous elections reveals that such change is quite common:

    In August 1999, Texas Gov. George W. Bush led Vice President Al Gore by 55% to 41% in a Gallup trial heat poll. That race ended up in a virtual dead heat, with Gore ultimately winning slightly more of the national popular vote than Bush.

    In August 1995, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole was slightly ahead of President Bill Clinton in a Gallup poll, 48% to 46%. On Election Day 1996, Clinton beat Dole by eight points.

    In August 1983, President Ronald Reagan was ahead of Democrat Walter Mondale by only one point, 44% to 43%. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a 59% to 41% landslide in the November 1984 election.

    In August 1979, incumbent President Jimmy Carter was tied with former California Gov. Reagan -- each getting 45% of the vote. Reagan ultimately defeated Carter by 10 points.
  3. Max E.

    Max E.

    From the article above it looks like the 2 times the president was able to widen the gap in a tight heat at this point was when the economy was heavily in their favour.

    The other 2 times the gap went heavily in favour of the challenger.

    Bads news for Obama as i highly doubt he will be able to do anything to fix the economy in the next year.
  4. Lucrum


    Does Ron Paul actually have a chance this time?
  5. Max E.

    Max E.

    I think Ron Paul would smoke Obama if he could make it through the primary, but sadly he will never win the primary.
  6. cstfx


    The Gallup chart represents what all these Presidential elections always come down to:

    ~47% will ALWAYS vote Dem
    ~46% will ALWAYS vote Rep

    and Romney and Obama will spend over a billion dollars between them for those precious 7% of undecideds.

    What a waste.
  7. Max E.

    Max E.

    Yeah, i agree that its a complete waste, our politicians spend half of their time in office on the campaign trail.... though with how stupid they are that may not be a bad thing seeing as how they spend half their time not creating laws that completely screw america.

  8. LEAPup


    Precisely! The news media doesn't want him as he doesn't offer exciting gridlock that sells airtime. Ron Paul wouldn't be exciting to the press as he would actually be making things happen for America. So sad...
  9. achilles28


    Don't be fooled, Ron Paul has a serious shot. He nearly won Ames and polls neck-and-neck with top-tier contenders!

    The only thing that stands in the way of a Paul victory is the media. The Establishment HATE RON PAUL. They're doing everything they can to demagogue, smear, ignore and mock him.

    And he's nearly the front-runner DESPITE THAT.

    Ron Paul could go all the way. We've got 14 months before the vote, and he's on fire. He unites both the Left and Right under his message of peace, limited Government, strong Constitutional principles and the economy. This is our time, guys. You want REAL change? This is it.

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  10. Lucrum


    I say fuck the press.
    #10     Aug 23, 2011