Late rallies rouse suspicions

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by harrytrader, Oct 25, 2003.

  1. Friday reminds me this article :D

    Late rallies rouse suspicions
    By Peter Brimelow,
    Last Update: 12:40 AM ET June 27, 2002

    NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- These days, violent market reversals are really making everyone queasy - even when they finish with a closing rally, like Wednesday and Monday.

    Tuesday's closing triple-digit Dow loss, coming after a triple-digit gain earlier in the day, claimed a notable victim in investment letterland:'s Jack Schanepp, who announced the action constituted a Dow Theory sell signal.

    By Schanepp's count, this means he lost 4.8 percent on his bold bullish call last November.

    Just last week, I noted that Schanepp was one of two Dow Theory letters maintaining that the bull market was still intact.

    Now there is one: Dow Theory Forecasts

    It says it's still bullish. But it's sounding, well, queasy.

    But even days that end with a rally make some letters unhappy. This is because the pattern of sudden last-hour buying feeds the suspicions of those who believe the authorities have been systematically intervening in the stock market, trying to manage the bursting of the Great Bubble of the 1990s.

    It's a hairy theory, typical of letterland's willingness to think what Wall Street thinks is unthinkable.

    Most letters post their market comments too late for us to check what they were saying about this issue by press time. But On The Money's Dennis Slothower had this intriguing comment last Friday about a market in which everyone accepts there is official intervention - foreign exchange.

    "I can't help but wonder when the Euro was falling out of bed a year ago if some sort of agreement was reached between the central bankers to bring the Euro up and the dollar down in order to reach a parity between the two currencies. Certainly trade balances had grown all out of whack as we saw even with yesterday's trade report. We are now reaching this parity... the dollar is plunging fast and panic selling is overtaking the markets. When fear and pain get too severe as we are seeing now, the central bankers are more likely to take some action to stabilize things. This isn't because they care about how much pain you are suffering, but rather plunging markets become far more unruly to manage and more expensive to stabilize, the more panicky it becomes...We are beginning to feel an ominous threat to the markets (and I believe world markets too) if these critical supports are violated at the September lows. You can be sure the central bankers are very aware of this threat."

    And one letter who does post his daily comments immediately - Dow Theory Letter's Richard Russell - included a long attachment about a leaked Royal Bank of Canada report which appears to be the first financial establishment endorsement of the thesis, long and vigorously argued by Billy Murphy's LeMetropole Café website, that the gold price is being held down to mask gathering financial instability.

    Gold's early rally certainly got squashed Wednesday -- paradoxically in view of the weak dollar.

    Russell isn't worried -- he expects gold to trade some multiples higher eventually. He's speculated about stock market manipulation in the past. But yesterday, as the leading bearish Dow Theorists at the age of 78, he was savoring what looks like the rout of his younger rivals.
  2. dbphoenix


    Calm down, it was only short-covering.
  3. What I find REALLY suspicious is how every time in the minutes
    before a big surprise comes out, be it an "economic" number or an earnings report, there always seems to be someone making huges bets in the right direction.

    And the one time the big guy was betting in the wrong direction was a few days ago, I don't remember what number exactly it was, but I do remember that CNBC first reported it erroneously in a direction that seemed to favor the big guy again, and it took them several minutes to correct their mistake. Coincidence? Apparently the regulators seem to think so. I for my part am starting to speculate on the numbers whenever I notice that one guy buying (or selling) like crazy a few minutes before the scheduled release.

    BTW, I have no idea if it's always the same person or group of people or just a different bunch of (semi-)illegal insiders every time.
  4. Why should I need to calm down since I predicted the bottom of 9515/9498 EXACTLY since 22th October :D.

    "It is just we are entering my baseline on 4th scale and that 4th scale is always very volatile - as I said in fact in my mailing this morning

    and before the slide down I said a few days before that 9515 was the target:

    You can observe that we made today exactly a bottom at 9515/9498 that are just the theorical points on my chart calculated on 9th October that is to say more than 10 days ago hee hee ! And so it turned back exactly there to make a huge rally before close ."

    They can continue to manipulate this market since my model wouldn't work without manipulation from them or anybody since I don't know the name of Who cannot be known :D ! Now for the so called "free market" this is another story hmm.

    P.S.: if you are a little bit litterate in math, you can calculate the probability that the low and higher low are exactly to the point what the model forecasted.

  5. dbphoenix


    Because if you were as smart as you pretend to be, you'd know that it was just short-covering.
  6. Of course it is short covering : how do you want the market rallies from such bottom :D. I already explained that short covering was the primary way to reverse the market. And that doesn't prevent to help that process.

  7. dbphoenix


    That's not where short-covering rallies begin.

    You're starting to sound Japanese, Harry.
  8. And since when traders are supposed to cover at exactly the bottom as far as I know exact bottom are unpredictable for the majority of them so for sure they can't cover at bottom exactly - again for the majority only of course :D.

  9. In fact I don't affirm intervention by PPT - for I can "read" in market's mind not in PPT's mind directly :) - I posted that because some persons mention it on Friday :D

    Elite Member

    Registered: Jan 2002
    Posts: 973

    10-24-03 09:17 PM
    got my nuts
    squeezed late in the day by the plunge protection team

    Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain


    Registered: Mar 2003
    Posts: 33

    10-24-03 09:30 PM
    i believe if anyone was short into the close, the "plunge Protection Team" did their duty, fucked the shorts hard.

    And its gota be the Protection Team, i have not seen a shortsquezz like that in a while....woooowowowow
    #10     Oct 25, 2003