Yeah I've noticed some fairly odd movements as well on 2 minute charts, sudden spikes on index futures and constant fakeouts that didn't occur within the last few years. Wouldn't at all be surprised if this was an cooperative effort by Goldman Sachs and the government (e.g. the plunge protection team). I don't have any proof to back up my statements but I remember reading a Bloomberg article recently that mentioned that GS is the only IB massively expanding their prop trading programs. When the going gets tough, the markets get manipulated.
Government intervention? Well, we've been moving more to the socialist/nationalism side more and more, so it wouldn't shock me, but can't be true. Definitely not GS. I know the few prop traders left there. They blew up and firm delevered and does very little inhouse prop. Getting tired of the whack and am just not trading from 3.30pm on, unless it looks like a layup. Best of luck to those that do. It's like flipping a coin to me. I do this for a living, I don't consider it gambling, and the closes lately have been just that. Put my overnights on at 3.15pm with wide stops.
I'm thinking it is just low volume gamesmanship. Things will likely improve after the stress test BS is presented. It is wait-and-see mode now. imo
Looks like noise generated by an impinging signal source. Maybe transitioning prior to failure? Have you seen it before, maybe 08?
Given a choice, I'd trade the final two hours each day and nothing else. During "normal" markets (whatever that is any more) afternoon trend moves are clearly telegraphed by 2pm est or later. Not much of that in 2009 so far. The afternoon turns to megaphone wedges and chop-slam without warning. No consolidation patterns, no deliberate measurements, nada. Just wham-bam sideways or once in a great while directional surge. The directional surges are easy enough to spot and enter into, but follow-thru is the crux. Like you note, so many times they zig-zag hard to whack out both sides in rapid fashion. For now I lay heavier lumber in the morning, when it seems like directional tendencies are stronger. For sure we'll see a return to deliberate, trending afternoon stretches eventually. All artificial pressures on financial markets eventually fail and fade away. This too is merely a phase which will correct itself in time. They always do.
It's almost like if you are on the right wavelength, you can nail it from 3.30pm to close. Some days I can do no wrong, buy dips sell rallys like 4-5 times wide swings. Today was one I was not on. My best trade I accidently had my Q set to 1000 and thought it was 200, so when I went to sell 600 SPY long on a stop, it made me short 2400. I saw my P&L going up a lot and looked around telling trading buddies, "yeah, I nailed that move!"
According to the latest numbers put out by the New York Stock Exchange, Goldman did twice the number of so-called big program trades during the week of April 13. In fact, the bulk of the 1.234 billion shares traded by Goldman were done with the firm's own money. Credit Suisse was second in program-trading size, with 662 million -- half of Goldman's volume. http://www.nypost.com/seven/0428200...ut_goldman_sachs_role_in_ma_166505.htm?page=2