Everything is possible. Maybe he is the exception and he will be wrong all his life. I would just challenge that it has more to do with bad luck than anything else. I am a reversion to the mean kind of trader, so it probably impacts my way of thinking. We will see.
It also seems like analysts rarely try to combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis. Of course, if they are not traders, they probably do not give a lot of credence to TA. It is also harder to develop ideas with regards to technical analysis when you don't trade, because how do you really test different indicators to find a system that works for you.
It may have to do with bad luck. That would make an even stronger case to be contrarian. I am more playing Devil's advocate here. I always say you shouldn't fight the trend. He should have quit fighting the trend about 2 years ago though.
C'mom guys...I can't believe what I'm hearing here! He's a Wall Street Analyst giving a public forecast. That's as good as Satan saying buy here. These bastards get paid to suck the sheep in.
Like you I am a contrarian and like to play Devil's advocate. I am an agnostic in life in general and in trading in particular. I do no predict. I just develop systems which have an edge, according to backtestings. And many studies show that contrarian strategies have often the best performances. However, over time, the edge is being long, on average. So I have developed this trading strategy: I trade 2 systems, long individuals stocks, swing trades, a few days. Then , depending on market conditions, I short ETFs to hedge my long stocks. I like SMH and QQQQs , as they have a better range.
haha, and this guy gets paid how much a year to predict nonsense. This is a joke. He was wrong the last 4 years. What makes him think after changing his forecast now that he will be right, he is just chasing the markets now. It would be funny to see the S&P close at around 1300-1320 at the end of 2007.
ACM where do you see SMH in the next 1-2 weeks? ABOVE 35 or below 32. Its been stuck between 33-35 for quite sometime.