last night I have looked into my crystal ball and this is

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by andrasnm, Jun 14, 2003.

  1. what I saw coming.
    The financial world as we know it is on very thin ice.

    As you know through history when 'things' get too big and lose their nimbleness they will die out. This is happening to our multis
    (read Multinationals). Buffet is right when he says he can't buy any value, he is the best number cruncher bean counter in the world and he does not know what to do with his money...

    Bill Gates was interviewed and reportedly said he is worried about capitalism as we know it. The funny thing is that in my opinion we have not had true capitalism for quite a while.

    Ironically after the death of Communism we thought the long golden era of prosperity and commonwealth will last at least a hundred years. How wrong were we!

    This depression is thankfully will be shorter and much easier to digest than the last one. Once the old system (Corporacy) chokes the new era will bring back the small entrepreneur and the small business into life. Right now the government red tape and Wallmarts of the world make life impossible to the small business.

    Indications that I am right...
    1) war started and it is far from over - now we are eyeing iran...despite that the fed is broke...
    2) look at greenspan for the christ sake - every time I see the man he looks like he soiled his pants...
    3) RE defaults are rising
    4) how far can we cut the damn discount rate? 1.25 points more.
    I give you a year or two before shit will hit the fan...

    So why I am saying this on the strategy board?
    You can perhaps make a few bucks out of the situation you have no control and power to change anyway...

    Buy gold, buy raw land, short some stocks... etc.
    If you think I am crazy just do the opposite....
  2. bronks


    I keep looking for signs that the housing boom is starting to teeter, but so far, it's still looking strong. Also looking for a large financial institution to go belly-up, but still, so far so good. Those are the two heavies I've got one eye on at all times. Let me know if you see something I don't. Until then I'll keep poking along.
  3. The cataclysm (1929 type and more probably worse because we correct a much longer time period) should not be for now but around 2010. Fundamentally stock market follow demography. It is when the baby boomer need to take their money for retirement that of course the financial crooks will sell everything and tell them: oh sorry your money has evaporated. That's what happened to Japan for example. Their retirement plan has just been evaporated. In US the retirement money has been pumped by public deficit hoping hypocritly that they could take the money back when things will go better.

    So between now and 2010 we can just see a new crazy bull market my model gives 16000 as potential target. This should be the last one. And according to the elliotist structure this bull market is just a fake bull market since it is a corrective wave abcXabc. It means these high in stock market just hide the loss of power in one unit of dollar. This is a fact since according to Barron's 1 dollar of 1982 could just buy 12 cents of 1960's dollar.
  4. the economy and the markets were different in '29 versus now.
    Now we only need the multis to die with their "globalism" and let us have a clear breath and that won't take 10 plus years to blow over. Fundamentally if we have a bank crisis, papermoney crisis and mass default it can be blown over in a year or two. This has nothing to do with the correction and the market. The macro economy is very, very different now. That is the good sign. The bad sign is that the lead fascists of the "fuckism" want to prolong their reign at any price.
    even with war or worst....
    I however see good things come out of this. Small businesses will be back strong!
    and a "real" strong third party will come to final birth.

    Look what the MIT guys say....

    ""Will the large industrial corporation dominate the twenty-first century as it did the twentieth?

    Maybe not. Drawing on their research at MIT's Initiative on Inventing the Organizations of the 21st Century, Thomas Malone and Robert Laubacher postulate a world in which business is not controlled through a stable chain of management in a large, permanent company. Rather, it is carried out autonomously by independent contractors connected through personal computers and electronic networks.
    These electronically connected freelancers -- e-lancers -- would join together into fluid and temporary networks to produce and sell goods and services. When the job is done -- after a day, a month, a year -- the network would dissolve and its members would again become independent agents.

    Far from being a wild hypothesis, the e-lance economy is, in many ways, already upon us. We see it in the rise of outsourcing and telecommuting, in the increasing importance within corporations of ad-hoc project teams, and in the evolution of the Internet.

    Most of the necessary building blocks of this type of business organization -- efficient networks, data interchange standards, groupware, electronic currency, venture capital micromarkets -- are either in place or under development. What is lagging behind is our imagination. But, the authors contend, it is important to consider sooner rather than later the profound implications of how such an e-lance economy might work. They examine the opportunities, and the problems, that may arise and anticipate how the role of managers may change fundamentally -- or possibly even disappear altogether."

  5. trader99


    I'm not familiar with Elliot wave theory or whatever. But that's a PRETTY LONG RANGE FORECAST to go to 2010?!! wow. How can anyone be that confident about long term forecast like that?

    But sometimes I do entertain very long term outlook. And the scenarios you painted are some of the few that I juggle around in my head to see which one is more likely. It's fun to think about but I cant' trade on something that might happen 10yrs from now.

    but it's hella interesting though.

  6. bronks


    Home Foreclosures Hit Record High

    Friday, June 20, 2003; 2:48 PM

    By Richard Leong

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgages in foreclosure climbed to a record high in the first three months of 2003 as job losses and personal bankruptcies forced more people out of their homes, a mortgage industry group said on Friday.

    Home loans in the process of foreclosure climbed to 1.2 percent of all mortgages in the first quarter, beating the previous high of 1.18 percent set in the fourth quarter of 2002, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said.

    Mortgages entering the foreclosure process rose in the quarter to 0.37 percent from 0.35 percent in the fourth quarter.

    The percentage of all loans for one- to four-unit homes that were delinquent -- at least 30 days overdue -- slipped to 4.52 from 4.53 in the fourth quarter.

    The housing market has been a pillar of strength for the sluggish U.S. economy. Ultra-low interest rates have fueled record home sales and an unprecedented mortgage refinancing boom that has freed up billions of dollars in cash for consumers to pay down debt, save or spend.

    While benefiting from the lowest borrowing costs in more than four decades, Americans have been straining to meet their mortgage payments and credit card bills.

    In fact, the first-quarter increase in foreclosures was driven by the rise in foreclosed home loans owed by homeowners with blemished or "subprime" credit histories, Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Doug Duncan said in a conference call on its latest loan study.

    Until the economy improves and companies hire again, more Americans will default on their debt, economists say, and if defaults gain and the increase in home values slows, this will hamper economic growth.

    "It will be more difficult to work out trouble loans," Duncan said.

    Economists and the financial markets have been hopeful that the economy will pick up steam in the second half of the year, boosted by money from refinancings, the latest round of tax cuts and an anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

    If economic growth accelerates in the second half, Duncan said the average rate on 30-year mortgages, held by most U.S. homeowners, would rise to 5.5 percent at the end of the year from the current 5 percent.

    Duncan expects the Fed to lower short-term rates by a quarter point at its meeting next week.


    Foreclosure rates rose in the Northeast, the North Central region and the South, but held steady in the West.

    In the first quarter, more homeowners fell behind on their mortgage payments in the South and North Central region, while fewer in the Northeast and West were late on their payments.

    Foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies in the Midwest were higher than the national average in the first quarter due to heavy job losses in the manufacturing sector, Duncan said.

    Among the 50 states, Indiana posted the highest foreclosure rate, at 0.68 percent, and Mississippi had the highest delinquency rate, at 6.73 percent.

    At the other end of the spectrum, New Hampshire had the fewest home loans in foreclosure, at 0.17 percent, and South Dakota had the lowest percentage of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments, at 2.26 percent.

    Perhaps this it how it begins. Or should I say, ends.