When I see a big number out there like -75,000, I dont think that 75,000 new short positions have been established. But I do think its often the case that a decent % of the delta comes from daytraders trying to ride a big move, and thus opened new shorts on the way down. I'm not going to fade simply on the basis of an MD signal, but a huge delta in one direction can provide the fuel for a countermove. This ought to be moved to the Market Delta topic. I'd like to hear your thoughts and how you interpret the MD. On this topic, I only mentioned MD as I felt the huge number of prints on the bid gave a reason to expect a rally.
that's wonderful, but i will repeat market delta cannot tell you how many "net short" there are. and of course, in futures, there CANNOT be more net short than net long since each long MUST have an opposing position . if u see a lot of selling into the bid, that means more selling pressure. it has NOTHING to do with net shorts every contract that was sold on the bid, had a corresponding contract that was bought on the bid. it merely means the pressure to sell meant the trade went through at the bid im all for market delta, but it cannot tell you how many net shorts there are. actually, it can. net shorts = net longs = 0 that is true in futures obviously. not in stocks
i think everyone is trying to read tea leaves fact is, the market will do what it wants, when it wants, when it's least expected
Except the reversal happened at 2:45 and there was a little stop at 3:30 (trend was up) so according to it, we should have turned down again...
All after the fact bluster. All the way down you have to think 'don't fade the market , you'll get your ass kicked' Then of course when it actually does turn , you think you might be chasing it as the confirmation takes a nice chunk out of the move. After all this happens, I love how they come out of the woodwork talking about how easy it is. If it was 1/10 as easy as they claim, they'd be posting from their personal desert island.
ym with treble digit losses and u guys come out saying this was easy to predict? do u even know the odds of a comeback after such a decline? i put it at 40/1. and i have been conservative.
Come on..Did anyone really go long when the markets were tanking at 2pm. I tried to go long but couldnt press the buy button. Im sure I wasnt alone on that one.