But anyone can come up with a method that captures all the big moves. Heck, even only a moving average can do that. I think the skill part rests on remaining solvent in the interim, between such moves. So Larry supposedly won the contest legitimately. But, as we both have noted, it was only once and long ago. That alone refers to the luck of good timing - he won the bingo game. And indeed there was no second chance for Larry - the skill part. When he tried to manage other people's money he did so poorly that the regulators were called in to investigate. Yet some people here hero worship him. He has made a career of little more than what effectively amounts to a lottery win. A skill is something that can be repeated with reasonable regularity. Even so, there are those who think that things may have happened differently: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1007920#post1007920
Thunder, I will officially rescind my statement that Larry acheived his contest performance without question. There is enough gray area to simply leave it at that. I do know from personal experience while live-trading mechanical systems (very similar to his) that 10,000% returns are possible. It would take favorable market conditions, very aggressive contract size and more than a bit of good fortune on the trades that hold their stops by a tick or three. As an aside, I have personal acquaintances who solemnly swear they have seen sasquatch footprints and also heard unnatural noises in the northwest corners of this country. These people are veteran outdoorsman, salt-of-earth types who'd be safe to leave your wallet and wife alone with. Are they being totally honest? I like to give everyone benefit of doubt, but let's leave some room for disappointment, too :>)
Now wasn't that easy to do in civilized manner? BTW... did my ES charts stall or did the minis cease trading at noon? (laugh)
You missed that one indian guy he invented... That one was a hoot "Oh MarketSurfer, your exploits in the Market are legendary. I cannot wait to sit at your feet and watch you trade. I hope to spread rose petals everywhere your feet touch the ground... With great love and admiration, Ramadingdong
Grey area my arse....he nailed the contest. Set a record that won't be beaten for another 50 years. If there were any shenanigans....rest assured someone would have found it and not some obscure conspiracy theorist author, who makes his living selling books to pessimists like DOG! Do you also believe that the government caused the levies to fail in New Orleans? Run any mechanical system trading optimal levels and you can turn 10k into 1 million....it's all in the math, and catching a favorable run. Compounded returns are the key. Only requirement is that you reinvest some of your profits.
They call it winning because there can only be one winner....instead of him winning it...he had his daughter win it. Following his bonds strategy, and she was 16 at the time. Since that time, no one has earned more than her or him in a given year. How many more times will him or someone in his family have to win before you give the man credit?
mcshey, I'd like to believe the same things about Larry & his success myself. I think I stated similar viewpoints about mechanical systems and favorable streaks in several earlier posts today. Now, all that remains is for someone to write & run a similar system in the future. I've retired from the mechanical world myself, so will leave it for anyone else who wishes to accomplish what you state is simple enough to achieve.
btw... I don't believe in government conspiracies, but I would like to go on a search for bigfoot in the rainforests of Washington or B.C.