Largest correction since...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by michaelscott, Aug 5, 2007.

  1. Just a bit of info. If the SPX pushes down anymore then the current level, then this will be the largest correction since 2003. In 2003, the index swung down 18% before turning higher. Since then, we have had only relatively minor swings with the greatest swing so far being in May 2006 and that was a modest 8.8%.

    Currently, we sit at 8.5%

    If there is a recession, then the likelihood of a large swing is great. In 2001, the SPX went from 1315 to 944 or a 39% swing. In late 1990, the recession took the index from 369 to 295 or about a 25% swing. Both of these swings were completed within 6 months.

    I was looking for a pivot around 1458 earlier but that failed. The next possible pivot is in the high 1300s and if that fails then I believe it will be in the 1100s soon enough.

    The SPX hasnt made a lower low in a while so we might be looking at a change of trend fairly soon.
  2. bighog

    bighog Guest michaelscott how are the wife and kids doing?
  3. I agree, it could get ugly this week
  4. Did you watch Blomberg Tv interview with Jim Rogers last night?

    Jim Rogers said US is in recession right now only if the government had reported the proper number of GDP and inflation.

    Now; look back to Mr. Greenspan's comments in Feb of this year that US will be heading to recession in September.
  5. maxpi


    If it keeps on like it is it will cross the 50 week average very soon and meet the 200 week average at 1275 -1300ish area... highly likely the descent will slow before that though.
  6. The economy is fine. If you pissed away a lot of money on gambling options its gonna seem like there is something wrong. There is no sympathy for stupidity.
  7. so what is your point ST?

    you don't trade options so you are smarter than MS.

    You are still losing your shirt - worse yet with stocks.

    @MS who cares if we go down 25% - expect it. It will be best for all (except the hold-and-hopes) who should've already been washed out.

    Just expect it, position yourself for it and learn how to avoid it next time.

    All the rest is just noise.