Discussion in 'Trading' started by -EntropyTrader, Jul 10, 2003.
Structural Problems or what?
Everyone says lagging indicator, but how long can it lag?
I'm bearish right now, but I don't want to see a secular bear market - for the good of the nation and the world.
I think if the labor market continues its downward spiral, I'm afraid that's where we're headed.
My indicators dont show this: in fact, I am seeing a refreshing uptick in some key indicators that we use. Based upon our analysis I would say that things in the US have stabilized and that we are nearing the end of increasing unemployment numbers. Within our businesses we are seeing a very modest pickup.
Good news to hear.
I just hope we don't have a cyclical rally in the labor market too, we need long term job creation. A 6.4% unemployment doesn't seem that bad considering that most economists consider 5% to be full employment. But with all the fiscal and monetary stimulas we've had thus far, I'm suprised the labor market hasn't improved yet.
Businesses are using "on demand labor" instead of hiring permanent workers, this stat may not mean the same as it did in the past.
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