KWK is trading $15.76, with IV30⢠at 42.42 . The <a href="http://www.livevol.com/">LIVEVOL⢠Pro Summary</a> is <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/10/kwk.html">in the article</a>. <img src="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/images/blog/kwk_summary_3.jpg" /> ------------------------------------------------------------------- <a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/free_trial.html"><img height="200" src="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/images/blog/lvp_trial_ad.gif" /></a> For a limited time we are offering a FREE real-time trial to Livevol Pro⢠for non-professional traders. You can get your trial by following the directions here: <b><a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/free_trial.html">Click for Free Trial Offer</a></b> ------------------------------------------------------------------- The stock popped on 10-18-2010 from this news: KWK was the biggest percentage gainer on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday after the possibility of a take-private deal came to light, but it's debatable how "substantial" the potential premium for any eventual transaction would end up being. Source:<a href="http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10892093/1/quicksilver-surges-on-possibility-of-deal.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA">TheStreet.com</a> Note that the Darden family apparently owns 30% of the stock (source: Yahoo! Finance). I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for low vols. <b>Custom Scan Details</b> Stock Price >= $7 IV30⢠- HV20⢠<= -8 >= -40 HV180⢠- IV30⢠>=7 Average Option Volume >= 1,200 Industry != Bio-tech Days After Earnings >= 32 The snapshot of the scan is included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/10/kwk.html">in the article</a>) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol Proâ¢. <img src="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/images/blog/low_vol_scan.gif" width="600" /> The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30â¢) that is depressed both to the recent stock movement (HV20â¢) and the long term trend in stock movement (HV180â¢). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not purchasing depressed IV30⢠relative to HV20⢠simply because of a large earnings move. The KWK Charts Tab is included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/10/kwk.html">in the article</a>). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30⢠- red vs HV20⢠- blue vs HV180⢠- pink). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30⢠vs. the HV20⢠vol difference. We can see: IV30â¢: ~42.42 HV20â¢: 61.05 HV180â¢: 51 So, IV30⢠is depressed relative to the short term and long term realized movement of the stock. Keep in mind though, before the pop in stock price the HV20⢠was just 27. So the vol isn't an obvious purchase. But, I like the news aspect, so let's take a deeper look. Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/10/kwk.html">in the article</a>). <b>Possible Trades to Analyze</b> 1. Buy-write. Yes, I know I said the vol was low, but buying the stock and selling the Oct 16 calls is one way to play this takeover/private news. 2. Buy the Nov 15/16 strangle, sell the Nov 14/17 strangle and pay a total of $0.50 (those are hard prices). That turns the MaxGain:MaxLoss to 1:1 and just bets on the stock being outside of [$14.50 ,$16.50] by Nov expo. It does purchase the "lowish" vol, but also hedges nicely the vega that could go down and die the premium that could die to theta. 3. Ok, I ran out of ideas after #2.... This is trade analysis, not a recommendation. Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts here: <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/10/kwk.html">http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/10/kwk.html</a> Legal Stuff: <a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html">http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html</a>