Thank you for the complete lack of specificity or data to support any claim at all in your posts. This is the best way to make baseless and general calls and not have yourself be held accountable. Make no mistake, I genuinely want you to be correct. I want this over and the sooner the better. But I challenge people pulling stats out of their ass on the side of the panic brokers, I feel obliged to do the same to the folks claiming everything is coming up rainbows.
Slope of new cases and total cases in a linear chart holds no relationship to the peak. In order to see a peak on a chart, the slope has to then trend down, which it will never do on a total cases chart. It will only go up until it is flat. That is not the peak. In addition a linear chart of new cases will not show a peak until the actual number of new cases drops. The peak happens well before the number of new cases each day drops in absolute number.
Uh...no. The slope doesn't have to trend down. It just has to slow its upward velocity. You seem to want to poke holes in data that I post, but yet refuse to post anything of any substance at all supporting your wild claim.
If so, you would then be able to see the velocity of the slope decelerating. The pandemic in Italy and Spain and other places i,s for all intents and purposes, over. All that remains is the clean up of any new cases coming in and working through the remaining recoveries and deaths.
from BBC Coronavirus: Deaths rise sharply in Spain while infection rate stabilises 47 minutes ago Spain has seen a sharp rise in the number of deaths caused by coronavirus but the rate of new infections is stabilising, officials say. Confirmed cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, rose to 64,059, a 14% increase compared with 18% a day earlier and 20% on Wednesday. In 24 hours, 769 people died, a daily record, taking the total to 4,858. Deaths among vulnerable people seem to be mounting, with residents at elderly nursing homes particularly affected. Spain, Europe's second-worst-hit country after Italy, has extended the state of emergency until at least 12 April, with stringent restrictions on people's movement in place and most shops and businesses closed. The latest figures raised hopes that the measures were beginning to take effect, with health emergency chief Fernando Simón saying they showed a "clear stabilisation". He added: "It seems that we're approaching the long-awaited peak". The army has been deployed to deep clean hospitals and other facilities as well as some 900 nursing homes, where at least 1,517 deaths have reportedly been recorded. Meanwhile, the health ministry said some 9,000 rapid diagnostic tests imported from China through a Spanish company had proved defective. It said the kits had European approval and their use had been suspended.
Reader-----begin to look for news stories out of countries and states etc. where official say things like "the peak is near". ----When they say that of course, the peak is well behind them.---Sorry Tree, I was typing this while you were posting that article. Looks like it's already started to happen with these officials. Thanks for posting.
Let's hope we are "approaching the long awaited peak." But this is not at all the same as the yesterday's "we have definitely peaked!" and "we are on the downside of this crisis".