WFT!!!!!! @AlexBerenson Former NYT reporter and author of Tell Your Children, published by Simon & Schuster. Deputy assistant minister for the Dept. of Pandemia.Mar. 26, 2020 1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID; https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/… 2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick. 3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous. 4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/… 5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work. 6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested. You can follow @AlexBerenson.
Oxford theoretical epidemiologist... they are on the same level as pollsters.....look at a tiny pool of data and extrapolate a theory and pass it as fact.
Mortality rate in The US continues to drop as more testing is done and deaths are decelerating. Likely, the mortality rate in The US is somewhere below .5 percent as the only people that can get tested are the folks that have symptoms. It's been shown that a great number of cases are asymptomatic and thus are never included in numbers or even known about by the victims.
This Republican Congreffman needs to quit grandstanding and stop demanding a voice vote on the aid package. There are other ways to get your name in the papers . Get off of it.
Tremendous confirming evidence today confirming that the outbreak in Spain has definitely peaked. Fabulous!
Spain as of yesterday. I suppose you can make posts with adjectives like "Tremendous" and "Fabulous" just like Trump does, but it doesn't mean the numbers back up your assertions. However, you can take heart! If you say these things every day, eventually one day you will be correct and can brag about it!
You'll begin to see in the next few days, news report from government officials that the peak is near. They will say that the peak is near, because they are afraid to get people over-excited even though the peak has passed. Government officials and doctors are typically extremely cautious and will be behind the curve as they attempt to keep their careers in place. I don't have to do that. I can analyze without worrying about destroying my career. Make no mistake---This thing has peaked in both Italy and Spain among other places.
Linear charts of new cases is of no use in realizing the peak of an epidemic. The chart will continue to rise until there are less absolute numbers each day. The peak happens well before absolute numbers each day drop.
Ah, so you are providing predictions? Because you said "news from Spain". So either you have a time machine or you are referring to some inside track on information. Pardon my extreme level of doubt.