EUR.JPY and CHF.JPY give slightly different opinions. If I am able to aggregate the story and freeze their price at the time of this post, they are saying SPX should be trading close to 900, imo. I am not going to short SIFs, but I am not going long here either. nitro
Looks like testing 900 is likely. I am a buyer somewhere in the 882 to 895 area. I have to get a feel for momentum once we get there. nitro
The big fear is the jobs number tomorrow. It will be horrendous, but how much is already priced in? nitro
I am hearing rumors again that GS is in trouble. Oh boy. Look, it won't be allowed to fail. It will get more of an infusion. In the meantime, markets may be reacting to that. I would be very cautious here if you are hunting for bargains. No need to gamble. Otherwise, if you want long, at least hedge, say with VIX calls. nitro
You know, if several years ago someone showed you in a crystal ball that F would be trading at $2.00 and GM at $5.00, and asked you to guess where SPX would be trading as a result, no one would guess 900. Either: 1) The auto industry is no longer as important to the economy as it used to be [the consensus] or 2) Markets are in denial about the repercussions [which introspectively includes me.] Imo, the economy cannot afford letting these companies go BR. Even in the case of a merger, the economy is going to get flooded with people that have very few prospects of finding new jobs with much of the rest of manufacturing jobs going overseas seeking cheap labor. The most infuriating thing to me about US automakers, and an experience that soured me to US cars made for America is, I went to Europe on my honeymoon a while back. We were picked up by family of my then wife in a Ford Focus. I was completely astonished. I couldn't believe that I was riding in a Focus. The suspension of that Focus was as tight as a toyota or BMW. The feel inside the car was that of subtle luxury. I asked if this was a standard car you can buy from a dealer, and he said the car was stock. I then realized that in the US, it is not that US automakers cannot make good cars, it is that we get flooded with crap continuously from the big three, so that we lease the cars and continuously turn them over every two to three years, and so that the cost of the car is kept low by using cheaper parts in the US. Very difficult to say how SIFs should trade around nearly bankrupt automakers, imo. nitro
Please stop signing your posts. Your screen name sort of gives us an idea re who is posting. Thanks. whodareswinston (ooops)
Unemp to 6.5%. Job losses 240k. Revision will make it worse. Momentum in unemp is obvious. It all depends how deep this goes. We are guessing at this point where this ends, and how much priced in. nitro
EUR.JPY and CHF.JPY levels suggest ES should be trading about 900, maybe a touch below. Look at 122.50 for support in EUR.JPY, and run for the exits if that is broken to downside. Confirmation is a break of 121.50 nitro