As far as i remember, at turning point of 666 ES FV was about 150 points up from the value of ES. Maybe we have to expect something similar in upcoming turning point.
Well, if you use this measure you are likely to get confused as I do occassionally. Even though the percentages are the same, I remind myself that the numbers are much smaller on this run up. Losing 50% from 1560 is 780 handles, but gaining 50% from 666 is "only" 333 handles. I guess what I am saying is that percentage wise this feels like as much a meltup as the selloff was a meltdown, but it is not on the same fear/exuberance index. There is no real number that measures this. VIX doesn't do it because of its asymetric nature. That said, "FV" sort of normalizes for this, but not completely. So the SPX being ~160 below "FV" we saw was during the selloff was worse than this +125 SPX is above "FV', imo, and not just 35 "FV" points worse. Patience. I think this runup has another 40 handles or so to the upside, filling the gap at ~1075 to 1100. Selling into EOM is wrong more often than not. At the earliest, wait until late Wednesday or Thursday to put a short position on, only with momentum of course and minding the EOM seasonal buying. BTW, in order to get a good short off, you may have to watch markets overnight as the market (ESU9) may just open 20 handles lower like it did recently on the Hang Seng selloff.