Good thread. Nice to see some reasoned analysis here instead of "Sell the rally!" "Dow 3000" "Great Depression!!" etc.
A possible head and shoulders top is forming in EUR.JPY in the very short term. However, there is also a possible trendline break forming to the upside. CHF.JPY also has this pattern, but lagging. Should be monitored. If this H/S pattern fails and the TL breaks occurs, we (US SIFs) go much higher. If not, we probably sell off. If we go higher and the H/S does form, that is very bullish. nitro
We are above 975. Now NQ needs to come online. Lagging badly. Watch 975 and then the key is 982 ish. Above 982 - 985 is almost certain 1050 in the next few days. Risks? Weak longs and redemption. nitro
A close above 985 SPX is very possible. If so, imo you are taking your life in your hands going short into the weekend. nitro
This has the feel of redemption. Watch the last five minutes. If this selling gets inhaled and then taken higher, be afraid if you are short, very afraid. nitro
If this level of activity continues, a kurtosis trade, [Long ATM butterfly, Short the wings] would be ideal for rest of year. Thing is, you have to have more than just vision to put on that trade. nitro
If we closed here [995 ES], this would be very bullish. If we trade around here all day and then go above 1000, I wouldn't be short with your money. nitro
EUR.JPY about to test resistance at 128.50. CHF.JPY lagging badly, but it could just be dragged along, kicking and screaming. If you are going to short, this is the time to do it, and SAR if EUR.JPY breaks out. nitro