Patience. I am going to go short ES MOC (3:00 CST close) and I am not going to touch it intraday until then, unless at 2:00 CST I see something I like.
I have it at 3 STD Dev based on the last 5 trading days. I good short could form if it fails. If not should go to 1000. The question is why are you fighting the big UP trend? We should be on the gravy train.
Closer to 4 std than 3 now. No, it is based strictly on the level of mispricing, not on number of days being mispriced. I have never seen it go from 50 to 100 or a change of that magnitude in a day. I am not fighting the day at all. I choose to stay on the sidelines until I can short again (or "FV" comes up to meet SPX in wich case I go to neutral), which will be done at EOD if it is deemed appropriate. You see, I am trading a system, not some whim that says I think I should go long here or there. If the systems says short, I short, or go long, I go long. My "FV" filter prohibits me from going long when it is this far out of whack (or short if the reverse were true). Remember, I hold SIFs positions for big moves, and that means I have to hold them overnight. So if I go long here it isn't to get five handles, it is because I think the move is worth 30+. Does that mean I miss lots of good intra day opportunities? You bet. But that is a different decision/problem. One day, you come to the conclusion that you are not going to be part of every move, or worse, be on the wrong side of one. It's ok. I am seriously hoping this is an island day.