Kudos to MMs

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by nitro, Oct 23, 2008.

  1. nitro


    EUR.JPY and CHF.JPY trying to make a run at their key resistance levels of 126.25 and 84.50, respectively.

    As stated above, 890 SPX is first target. Then 900 for confirmation, and then the gap fill. Finally, Fair Value [~975 SPX] is target after that.

    Risks are as stated many times above: Redemption. FED 100 delta to cut .50 tomorrow. US SIFs may rally into that, followed by getting a monster redemption taking us to 782 SPX Thursday/Friday. And then mind your seasonal - I would not be surprised to see a 1000 DOW gain (100 ES handles) come Monday, or even 120 handles. And that would only get us to Fair Value. Momentum has a strange way of overshooting in these markets, so selling all at FV would probably be a mistake.

    #41     Oct 28, 2008
  2. nitro


    CHF.JPY on verge of breakout. Currently at major resistance. Too bad EUR.JPY lagging, or this could be spectacular into tomorrow.

    SPX on verge of breakout. At resistance, 890.

    #42     Oct 28, 2008
  3. nitro


    CHF.JPY ballistic. EUR.JPY, well let's just say that if we go above 126.50 and then continues higher and if you are short SIFs, that feeling you have in the seat of your pants is the markets leg on the back of your ass.

    #43     Oct 28, 2008
  4. nitro


    Would love to see an redemption attempt into the last half hour on huge volume, completely inhaled by buyers and then taken higher. Then, oh my gawd.

    #44     Oct 28, 2008
  5. nitro


    Next target the gap fill, 935 to 950 SPX.

    #45     Oct 28, 2008
  6. Daal


    do you realize that total quaterly hedge fund remdemptions are less than one day worth of US stock market trading(like less than 50% of daily volume of nyse alone)
    #46     Oct 28, 2008
  7. nitro


    I hope you covered.

    #47     Oct 28, 2008
  8. I wasn't expecting a 13% gain and it happened while I as work. :(

    I can justify trading full time now, I loose too much money at work.
    #48     Oct 29, 2008
  9. nitro


    950 SPX, the gap fill, appears imminent. The close today will be hard fought by both bulls and bears.

    If you are a bear, imo I would not sell this market before the FED announcement. Then it may get interesting. I think it is a mistake to sell at this point below 975, which imo is approximate fair value. But anything can work after the gap fill [especially if there are more redemption], including 1050 SPX, even in a jiffy.

    EUR.JPY and CHF.JPY at levels that no longer hurt US SIFs. The baton has been handed over to the US.

    #49     Oct 29, 2008
  10. nitro


    Option MMs gamma scalpers damping pre-market rallies in SIFs. Don't mistake it as a willingness to sell short.

    #50     Oct 29, 2008