"FV" little changed, at about 865. Next round of note auctions. Oil futures very strong pre-market in front of the inventories report. VIX has support at this area, 33 ish. It has been almost free money to be long VIX and long the market. You get the protection of VIX, and it loses very little on slow creep-ups. That's a stat arb [of course, we have not seen recently what would happen on a big correction, but I suspect VIX would gain fast]
Observations: 1. This thread should be in the Journal section. 2. The thread title has nothing to do anymore with the current topic, which is posting the daily FV. It should be called Daily FV... 3. As mentioned earlier, your FV calculation itself can not be used for trading, thus posting it is rather meaningless. Other than that, great journal!
Odds we gap fill today's opening gap, 80 delta. Odds that we gap fill the small gap between 878 and 883 today, 30 delta.
Odds SP futs close near unched: 60 delta. Odds SP futs close up decent to big: 10 delta Odds SP futs close down decent to big: 30 delta Guess which way you should be leaning your positions, from here.
Since we are up 5-6 pts since when you posted, UP? Now it might seem that I am too hard on this journal, but this last "prediction" is an excellent example that no matter what your indicators or values show, the market can and will think otherwise....
"FV" ~865. As of the time of this writing, we are ~55 handles above "FV". Thirty bond auction today. Very worth paying attention to how it goes [how well subscribed]. Oil futures on fire the last two few days. While supply is evident everywhere, and the market agrees there is plenty of supply as evidenced by the contango in prices, oil is moving up on three tiers of reasoning imo: 1) $ is being put into play in all asset classes. 2) The amount of $ in the system and the low IRs are sooner or later going to cause inflationary pressures. 3) Oil is still coupled to equities. At this point, oil has perhaps $2.5 more of upside imo, if everything goes right for it. Nasdaq futures have been dragged higher by the rest of market. Even with CSCO earnings, NQ wants no part of higher at this point. This could be NQ anticipating IRs going higher soon. That seems so reasonable, and so being ignored, that it must be close to true. There are now two trendlines to note. Usually on these time frames that is unusual, but that is what happens when markets go on a parabolic course. One trendline to watch is a very steep trendline, and a breakdown of that isn't catastrophic, but should be seen as a setup into the second trendline. This trendline support at the time of this writing is at about 908. The second trendline [again at the time of this writing, all this is dynamic] break would occur on a close below 900. My target remains the little gap between 878 and 882, which would only put SPX slightly above "FV". Bernanke speaks again. What surprise could he hold that he didn't mention the first time around two days ago?