FED is a non event. Markets probably anticipated 90% of what was said. "FV" now at ~850. I would not sell this with your money, let alone mine. 882 SPX seems imminent.
"FV" ~855. Oil futures are lagging SIFs now, and don't appear to want higher. I find that illogical, given that XOM essentially can't find oil. Light news day. Note and bill announcements and settlements, but no auctions. VIX is holding the recent low, surprisingly. All I see is no one wants to buy vola, and the market is in a pouch of euphoria where it thinks the market will never go down again. Technicals have clearly strengthened, and clarification in the auto sector coming to a point is also a plus. If we go through 882, I don't see what can stop 900. Look to 872 for support, but think about selling if we close below 872 as it may signal short term exhaustion.
"FV" ~ 870. As of the time of this writing, we are again at zero edge. Europe is off. Could be a light volume day. Extremely light news day. Nothing going on in the IR complex. Oil futures dead. Odds of sideways action 75 delta, although vola may get a little bid into the close, as we closed below 872 yesterday and that may have some carry over into today.
Watch for a break of 865, and a close below that would probably cause a real sell off on Monday. It would have been much easier to sell the break earlier in the week when "FV" was so much lower. Now there is real risk in selling and it would be strictly on technicals, but still odds-on on the 865 break and close below contingency.
"FV" ~840. As of the time of this writting, we are beginning to get short edge, but not enough. Very short end of the curve auctions mid afternoon. Hoenig and Lacker speak around the same time, but I doubt they could say anything of consequence. Oil futures red pre-market, but they had a strong run up Friday. A close above 882 continues to be the upside that bulls are looking for. A close below 872 would have gotten bears excited not that long ago. Now it looks like 862 - 865 is the prize. I would even anticipate and short 865.
VIX is completely non-intuitive at this point imo. They are blasting JUN vola, as markets are at the point where they do nothing but go up. And yet, VIX hasn't broken the recent low In addition, it is a little bit confusing since one would think that the Obama tax plan to close tax loopholes for corporations with money overseas should cause a repatriation of dollars, and I see the opposite so far, the dollar is selling off "FV" has climbed back close to 870. Edge is essentially zero again, but it worth noting the previous post if we get a breakdown of 865.
Cinco de Mayo. "FV" little changed from yesterday, ~865. Quite busy in the IR complex today. Several note auctions next three days. Definitely worth watching. Bernanke speaks today and Thursday. Lacker said yesterday, [paraphrased] "Must Trim Reserves, raise Interest Rates at roughly same time." It will be interesting to see at what point the FED starts hinting of raising interest rates. If the housing market has stabilized, then deflation is no longer the threat and it is inflation that is the main threat, imo. That is why it is so important to keep an eye on oil futures, as they will probably one day go higher for no apparent reason, decoupling from equities, anticipating the inevitable raise in IRs. Currencies will also signal an anticipation of raising of US IRs. Trend line break has moved higher. Now a break of 882 would be an odds on short, and a break of 862-865 would signal an odds on some sort of correction.