02/23/2012 13:54:32 OFV = 1364.18 Buy to Open at 1361.01 Spread = 3 02/23/2012 15:00:24 OFV = 1368.07 Sell to Close SPX at 1363.24
Bon Jovi (living on a prayer) Woarghhhhhhh......... not even half way there WOAGH OHHHHHH livin' on a prayer Take fair value and we'll bankrupt i swear.....
first order regression typically picks up most of the signal. FV was wrong to begin with, but you expect second (OFV), third (POFV) order effects to be correct.
With SPX at 1368 <table border="1"><tr><th>Date</th><th>Action</th><th>Price</th><th>Units</th><th>PnL</th></tr><tr><td>Dec 20, 2011</td><td>Sell to Open SPX</td><td>1229.89</td><td>2</td><td>-276</td></tr><td>Jan 11, 2012</td><td>Sell to Open SPX</td><td>1288.60</td><td>1</td><td>-79</td></tr><td>Jan 25, 2012</td><td>Sell to Open SPX</td><td>1321.20</td><td>1</td><td>-47</td></tr></table> Unrealized losses : 402 points Another call for implosion, another week without it. You've called for it so many times that even if it eventually does implode the prediction will be meaningless.
02/24/2012 10:31:27 OFV = -966.20 Sell to Close SPX at 1367.62 02/24/2012 10:57:00 OFV = 1371.47 Buy to Open at 1368.39 Spread = 3 02/24/2012 13:00:21 OFV = -967.84 Sell to Close SPX at 1366.93 02/24/2012 13:47:06 OFV = 1360.70 Sell to Open at 1364.47 Spread = 3 02/24/2012 15:00:04 OFV = 1363.28 Buy to Close SPX at 1365.78