Kudos to MMs

SPX teetering on important support at the close. If 841 goes, expect at least a quick gap fill to 825.

 

"FV" ~830. CPI will likely dictate the day today, but a gap fill seems imminent with the reaction of NQ after the close yesterday in response to INTC. If CPI comes out as expected to show negative inflation [deflation], expect to see a bond rally, as 3.00% with a real return of about 5% seems attractive with equities likely fully valued. Currencies will follow and take the dollar higher. This CPI analysis gives further credence to an equity sell off and a gap fill, but much hangs on CPI.

Oil futures tame, but they were anything but yesterday after the open. Inventories due out at 9:30 CT.

Is VIX changing it's character? The last two days have been counter intuitive, imo.

 

I could copy and paste what I wrote yesterday and it would be 100% accurate. "FV" ~830.


The markets were very mixed yesterday. Today feels like it may be more of the same.

 

"FV" ~820.

Oil futures tame.

These two days, expiration Thursday and expiration Friday, are often counter intuitive unless you have experience trading them. It is very useful to store the data for these two days for later research if you trade them.

Earnings continue to come in and they look ok to me.

 

Nitro, are you still looking for oil to go to $60 in the immediate?

 

Ivanovich,

QM is a slave to equities at this point, imo. Since equities are now trading well above "FV" ["FV" this morning about 820, and ES trading about 863 as I write this], it is imo a bad short term bet to go long QM, unless you think QM has decoupled from equities.

In the intermediate term, meaning say six to nine months, $60 oil is 80 delta, imo.

 

Roger, thanks mate.

 

"FV" has dropped some and is worth noting. At ~800. Markets remain very mixed so it can get more out of whack short term into exp.

 

Your overlord has no clue. Qm is slave to CAD not stocks. Get with the program

 

"FV" collapsing, about ~ 792. Still looking for the gap fill in SPX to 825.

Oil futures down 4% pre-market.

Imo IBM made a big mistake not swooping up Sun MicroSystems. It is not so much that they need the hardware, it is more that they don't want exactly what happened to happen. ORCL can now almost directly compete with IBM on integrated solutions.