Nitro seems to have no feel for markets. He's introduced at least three major threads based on concepts that have no basis in reality ( his dad's mutual funds, his indicators, the need for companies to pay dividends to have value ). Obviously, he's fairly inexperienced in financial matters, and kind of an idiot savant trying to apply mathematics incorrectly to markets. Anyone adding to a losing short position in a upwardly trending market is asking to have their head handed to them. They might get lucky and survive, but its a stupid strategy. Unfortunately, there are far too many on this site encouraging this kind of behaviour.
Quote nitro: "I am motivated to tell you about this because in this environment, it is not terribly hard to make ~ 20% a year even in traditionally conservative investments, i.e., corporate bonds, OCGCX." ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NineEnder, nitro is saying for the year (2009 the environment) is making easier to have 20% possible for (conservative) investments. So he is not saying is always easy or possible to do this, but he saying this in 2009. Look, Risk Overview Morningstar Risk Rating: 2 Number of Years up: 11 Number of Years Down: 2 Best 1 Yr Total Return(Dec 31, 2009): 17.54% Worst 1 Yr Total Return(Dec 31, 2008): -12.71 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/rk?s=OCGCX ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- So this is very high return for the conservative fund (2009) {Best 1 Yr Total Return(Dec 31, 2009): 17.54%}
When will you wake up from this dream where you think all these random numbers have any meaning ? I can just see you now phoning your dad and saying "Oh my god, Dad, the POFVF is impoding you have to sell all your mutual funds immediately !!!". Maybe after these indicators fail again you can renew your posts on the importance of dividends to determining equity valuation. That was a comedy classic.
SPX, 1270.59. FV, 1061.42. OFV, 1194.89. POFVF, 1157.92. This market must be hanging on by dear life. If the model is wrong, then I have two theories. One is very simple to test since all it involves is a constant. The other is far far more complicated.