By tomorrow end of day, good chance he will be 'right', but not before a either a gap and go or just plain go. Tomorrow morning could setup for a blow-off top until next week again. (I am short 38 for now but closing within < couple hours).
"That posters don't learn very much from the lessons of their own journals is the saddest thing in the online community." B. Wolinsky
SPX, 1254.00. FV, 1088.24. OFV, 1108.25. POFVF, 1143.24. One intersting thing to note is that SPX is approximately (5th root of 2) * FV = 1249.78. It is always worth noticing these things because they often lead to insights, at least they do to me.
There is more to it. Notice this: (SPX / FV) * (2.02 to the power of 5) = (1254.00 / 1088.24) * 33.6323 = 38.76 which happens to be exactly Kim Kardashian's hip size (in inches).
If POFVF is supposed to predict where OFV will be in a week or two and POFVF is 100 points higher then OFV then why are you still short? Doesn't this mean your system is saying the market is going higher?
I am getting whipsawed on what I am keying on. The market is definitely keying on POFVF and the market is even predicting the predictions, if that makes any sense. I am still learning how the markets shifts back and forth between [CFV, FV,] OFV, and POFVF. What happened is that the model is not looking far ahead enough in POFVF, so I thought the market was back to keying on OFV. When I increased the prediction forward a week instead of just a couple of days, all of a sudden I saw the whipsaw coming. I have changed the model to display POFVF so that I can see its predictions even farther. At some point the market (actually the short term smart money is more accurate) cannot key too far into the future because there is too much risk by going out that far, so I am honing in on it. Another possibility is that time ahead prediction is a function of VIX, the lower the VIX the longer you can look and act ahead, since risk is reduced. The model does not currently work this way, that is, it doesn't adjust lookahead as a function of VIX, but it almost certainly should. Right now it is hardwired. I prefer to change things slowly though. Here are predicted POFVF from today to Friday (as of now - the predictions change in realtime) that don't get post: 1221.4 : 1236.4 : 1251.4 : 1264.4 That is relentlessly higher. Notice that unless something happens, the current trade will probably be stopped out by POFVF soon as it will catch up to SPX. This further looking ahead will prevent whipsaws, in theory. I am still short because I allow trades to prove themselves right or wrong based on the logic of which they were put on. Even though it is clear that that was flawed logic, there has to be the discipline to stand by it.