Earnings are not bad, but guidance is pretty awful. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=229494
It seems there are only 2 possibilities here based on your results so far. 1. Your model does not calculate FV accurately. Or 2. Markets are driven by fear, greed and speculation, therefore FV is irrelevant. You seem very smart in a weird sort of way so maybe you should calculate some statistics based on your results so far to see if there is any correlation between your FV and actual market movement. If there isn't, you could redirect your energies to something more productive.