I note that I said nothing for days, and only when I posted my sell call did we have a serious retrace. Uh, just lucky right? No models, just wisdom. Models are a crutch for the uninspired, and charlatans.
posted at 2:22 today on twitter. "reversal coming , looking for one more move higher to 1215 before the tank" first market call in over a week. the move came 5 min later to 1215 (ES) and change and that was it. doesnt get any better than that ps , anyone that quotes the spx and not the ES isnt really trading.
CFV, 958.67. CM, 1038.64. FV, 1118.62. OM, 1169.62. OFV, 1220.62. I am also going to keep track of the difference of the two mids, called d2M. d2M, 1104.13. Note that if you are optimistic, you should be mildly long here, since OFV is 13 above SPX. Another interesting signal is if d2M crosses above or below FV. As we can see, 2dM is currently below FV. We might use d2M to decide whether to be pessimistic or optimistic depending on whether it is above or below FV, although it might be too volatile. In essence what I have done with d2M is build my own version of MACD for FV, although it has nothing to do with that equation or mathematics. It is simply the same in spirit.
China's economy is slowing: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...n-five-on-signs-of-slower-chinese-demand.html They will devalue the currency to help exports. They have very little choice. On a normal day, the markets would be off 25 on that news, and probably red for days. But this will be bought.