It may appear that way, but I assure you that behind the scenes it is mostly quantitative. Are the still pockets of discretionary trading? Absolutely. It remains my continued wish to eliminate myself completely and become useless so that I can concentrate on far more interesting things, like the Hodge Conjecture or the Riemann Hypotheses.
You have a decent feel for FV. "Multiple equilibria" may be a compromise between the old model that you fell in love with, and the modern version that gets the overall trend mostly correctly. There is going to come a time when it is right to go long again, and FV will lag and cause me grief. I am pretty certain that I will not lag by more than 50 handle this time. It is at these points that I learn the most.
S SPX 1140.65. Fully expecting to lose money, perhaps even for a couple of days, but it is the disciplined entry. Next resistance, 1172, which SPX may easily reach.
Just for the record, but we closed up exactly by 20 pts. Stupid question, but why didn't you play it long??? You saw the bounce yesterday and the rally today, why not go long? Oh I forgot, your FV is predicting down....
This really sucks.... I thought I had 258 handles of edge when I sold yesterday at 1070. What should I do now? Oh wait... I bot em there... I'm not thinking too clearly anymore....
"China Warns of Trade War if U.S. Bill on Yuan Passes" http://www.cnbc.com/id/44766724 This kind of posturing has been going on for at least 30 years. Both the US and China has elections in 2012, so it is a pivot year. We may be at a final straw though. It is well known that China keeps its currency weak relentlessly: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000049466