Perfect timing, that is when the ES bottomed. Since then it is up almost 20 pts. I am going to sell the reverse strategy, don't change anything!!!
"Italy's Debt Downgraded by S&P; Outlook Still Negative" http://www.cnbc.com/id/44586211 For the first time it doesn't feel like this was leaked. Who in their right mind buys 1192 SPX lifting it 15 handles with this news on the burner? If SPX had ended on its lows (imo it was a down 30 day in the making whose -12 reality makes no sense), I would have been very weary of inside information.
Calibrated FV, 1000.25. FV, 1151.95. Mid 1076.10. Markets going higher, FV going lower. This is the market hoping the FED will do something. Markets have a way of putting blinders on, and it may go higher on the same news. I argue that the near 100 handle gain from about 1125 to here has FED action priced in, but markets have a multiplier, and then they tend to price things in at least once. So, it remains to be seen....
Operation Twist may do very little, although it will do something: http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...nks-between-bond-buying-operation-twist-.html It needs to be at least 3x the size imo to have any real effects, and this is taking into account multiplier effects. So hard to measure anyway....
Calibrated FV, 941.55. FV, 1154.58. Mid 1048.06. Calibrated FV has imploded, and I am not sure I trust it. Calibrated FV is pricing in at least a 65% of recession at this point.