For a moment I got scared for the reverse strategy, because the FV's direction accidentally got in sync with the market. But have no fear, when this was posted and FV has been the lowest that was a clear buy signal, and not a short. Anything between 1125-40 was a buy and currently safely in profits... Nitro, don't change anything, just keep posting!
I'm pretty sure nitro has stated numerous times that he doesn't have historical data and thus cannot backtest.
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. " Position recap: S Sep ES 1164.75 Added S Sep ES 1186.25 Added S Sep ES 1171.50 Out 1 of three units (short from 1164.75) at Sep ES 1149.50. +15.25. Still holding short units from 1171.50 and 1186.25. Assuming same position size for all three entries above the current basis is 1175.3, pretty much exactly where ES is trading now although that's Dec expiration, I believe Nitro was trading the Sep contract which is 1181
Calibrated FV, 1097.33. FV 1207.13. Mid 1152.23. Taking intermediate profits at 1130 was clear. I made a simple mistake. I am in the process of correcting it.
Added S at SPX 1192.0 (in the real world using the DEC ES contract). I should have used SPX when I was giving entries for the other trades like I always do, but they were premarket trades and it is hard to do. Now I have to roll the position into the Dec contract (for those trades) and it complicates things. Oh well.